Michael J. Mauboussin

En toda actividad que desarrollemos los resultados son iguales a las habilidades más la suerte. Hay un componente de previsibilidad y de imprevisibilidad en todo lo que hacemos. El autor busca a través de la ecuación del éxito medir la proporción que la suerte y los elementos imprevisibles tienen en la consecución de un resultado. Si logramos saber esto, podremos analizar con eficiencia la calidad de las acciones que tomamos en relación a los resultados obtenidos. De esta forma podemos adoptar mejores decisiones y mejorar nuestra productividad y el retorno de nuestras inversiones, logrando disminuir considerablemente la importancia de la suerte y demás imprevistos en los resultados obtenidos.

Leaders in all fields-business, medicine, law, government-make crucial decisions every day. The harsh truth is that they mismanage many of those choices, even though they have the right intentions. These blunders take a huge toll on leaders, their organizations, and the people they serve.Why is it so hard to make sound decisions? We fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable. In Think Twice, Michael Mauboussin shows you how to recognize-and avoid-common mental missteps, including:-Misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages-Aggregating micro-level behavior to predict macro-level behavior-Not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision-Relying too much on expertsSharing vivid stories from business and beyond, Mauboussin offers powerful rules for avoiding each error. And he explains how to know when it's time to think twice-to question your reasoning and adopt decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive.Master the art of thinking twice, and you'll start spotting dangerous mental errors-in your own decisions and in those of others. Equipped with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization.

Since its first publication, Michael J. Mauboussin's popular guide to wise investing has been translated into eight languages and has been named best business book by BusinessWeek and best economics book by Strategy+Business . Now updated to reflect current research and expanded to include new chapters on investment philosophy, psychology, and strategy and science as they pertain to money management, this volume is more than ever the best chance to know more than the average investor.Offering invaluable tools to better understand the concepts of choice and risk, More Than You Know is a unique blend of practical advice and sound theory, sampling from a wide variety of sources and disciplines. Mauboussin builds on the ideas of visionaries, including Warren Buffett and E. O. Wilson, but also finds wisdom in a broad and deep range of fields, such as casino gambling, horse racing, psychology, and evolutionary biology. He analyzes the strategies of poker experts David Sklansky and Puggy Pearson and pinpoints parallels between mate selection in guppies and stock market booms. For this edition, Mauboussin includes fresh thoughts on human cognition, management assessment, game theory, the role of intuition, and the mechanisms driving the market's mood swings, and explains what these topics tell us about smart investing.More Than You Know is written with the professional investor in mind but extends far beyond the world of economics and finance. Mauboussin groups his essays into four parts-Investment Philosophy, Psychology of Investing, Innovation and Competitive Strategy, and Science and Complexity Theory-and he includes substantial references for further reading. A true eye-opener, More Than You Know shows how a multidisciplinary approach that pays close attention to process and the psychology of decision making offers the best chance for long-term financial results.

Most investment books try to assess the attractiveness of a stock price by estimating the value of the company. Expectations Investing provides a powerful and insightful alternative to identifying gaps between price and value.Michael J. Mauboussin and Alfred Rappaport suggest that an investor start with a known quantity, the stock price, and ask what it implies for future financial results. After showing how to read expectations, Mauboussin and Rappaport provide a guide to rigorous strategic and financial analysis to help investors assess the likelihood of revisions to these expectations. Their framework traces value creation from the triggers that shape a company's performance to the impact on the value drivers. This allows a practitioner of expectations investing to determine whether a stock is an attractive buy or sell candidate.Investors who read this book will be able to evaluate stocks of companies in any sector or geography more effectively than those who use the standard approaches of most investors. Managers can use the book's principles to devise, adjust, and communicate their company's strategy in light of shareholder expectations.This revised and updated edition reflects the many changes in accounting and the business landscape since the book was first published and provides a wealth of new examples and case studies.

Measuring the Moat: Assessing the Magnitude and Sustainability of Value Creation Sustainable value creation is of prime interest to investors who seek to anticipate expectations revisions.This report develops a systematic framework to determine the size of a company’s moat.We cover industry analysis, firm-specific analysis, and firm interaction.

Frontiers of Finance is a series of research reports written by Michael Mauboussin and published by Credit Suisse First Boston.

Capital allocation is a senior management team’s most fundamentalresponsibility. The problem is that many CEOs don’t know how to allocatecapital effectively. The objective of capital allocation is to build long-termvalue per share.Capital allocation is always important but is especially pertinent todaybecause return on invested capital is high, growth is modest, andcorporate balance sheets in the U.S. have substantial cash.Internal financing represented more than 90 percent of the source of totalcapital for U.S. companies from 1980-2015.M&A, capital expenditures, and R&D are the largest uses of capital foroperations, and companies now spend more on buybacks than dividends.This report discusses each use of capital, shows how to analyze that use,reviews the academic findings, and offers a near-term outlook.We provide a framework for assessing a company’s capital allocationskills, which includes examining past behaviors, understanding incentives,and considering the five principles of capital allocation.

八旗文化《打破選股迷思的獲利心法》作者達摩德仁教授撰文解說《投資最重要的事》作者霍華‧馬克斯、《致富心態》作者摩根‧豪瑟一致好評成長型、價值型投資人都適用，同時掌握估值的技術與藝術本書的「預期投資法」幫你鍛鍊出馬克斯強調的「第二層思考」 看完這本書，你可以學會——評估股價中隱含的市場預期找到股價修正的原因與時機點，進而找到投資機會訂定買進、賣出或持有的決策標準 想要了解市場預期如何影響一家公司未來的表現，「股價」是最清楚、最可靠的訊號！ 我們要找的，不是便宜的股票，而是價格合理、且市場對它有期待的股票，但如何做到—— 藉由估計公司價值來評估股價的傳統方法已不再適用，本書為投資人提供一套嚴謹的投資策略與財務分析方法：「預期投資法」，重新定義並解答：「公司的未來值多少價值？」「股價」表達投資人的集體預期，掌握這些預期的變化，將決定你是否成為贏家。 大多數投資書籍都會試著藉由估計公司的價值來評估股價的吸引力，但市場的複雜度使得財報成績可能提早、也可能延後反應在股價上，為了解決這個問題，莫布新認為，與其從基本面的起點出發，不如從基本面的終點「股價」回頭審視市場，解讀市場預期。 「預期投資法」是一套選股流程，它使用市場自己的訂價機制，解讀隱含在公司股價中的預期。更顯示出預期的修正如何影響股價。簡單來說，預期投資法使用正確的工具來評估正確的預期，做出正確的投資選擇。適用不同產業（實體產品事業、服務型事業，與知識型產品事業），也適用不同投資風格（成長型與價值型）。 本書結構——幫你選股、交易、判斷消息 【PART1】介紹預期投資法使用的工具。解釋為什麼傳統分析側重短期效益與本益比，導致錯誤預期。並提醒投資人跟著現金走，忘掉盈餘和本益比，避免以為預測能讓自己成為大預言家，猜不到才是市場常態。 【PART2】使用預期投資法的3個步驟。尋找市場預期出現修正的潛在原因，並專注分析對股價有最大影響的價值觸發因素（銷量、成本或投資），最後使用競爭策略分析，有助於預測到預期的修正，找出被低估的股票。 【PART3】哪些消息會影響你的決策。關注公司併購、發行股票或買進庫藏時所發出的訊號。這些消息會釋放出修正公司前景預期的訊號，幫助你找到投資機會。