Ian Bremmer

New York Times BestsellerRenowned political scientist Ian Bremmer draws lessons from global challenges of the past 100 years—including the pandemic—to show how we can respond to three great crises unfolding over the next decade.In this revelatory, unnerving, and ultimately hopeful book, Bremmer details how domestic and international conflicts leave us unprepared for a trio of looming crises—global health emergencies, transformative climate change, and the AI revolution. Today, Americans cannot reach consensus on any significant political issue, and US and Chinese leaders behave as if they’re locked in a new Cold War. We are squandering opportunities to meet the challenges that will soon confront us all.In coming years, humanity will face viruses deadlier and more infectious than Covid. Intensifying climate change will put tens of millions of refugees in flight and require us to reimagine how we live our daily lives. Most dangerous of all, new technologies will reshape the geopolitical order, disrupting our livelihoods and destabilizing our societies faster than we can grasp and address their implications.The good news? Some farsighted political leaders, business decision-makers, and individual citizens are already collaborating to tackle all these crises. The question that should keep us awake is whether they will work well and quickly enough to limit the fallout—and, most importantly, whether we can use these crises to innovate our way toward a better world.Drawing on strategies both time-honored and cutting-edge, from the Marshall Plan to the Green New Deal, T he P ower of C risis provides a roadmap for surviving—even thriving in—the 21st century. Bremmer shows governments, corporations, and every concerned citizen how we can use these coming crises to create the worldwide prosperity and opportunity that 20th-century globalism promised but failed to deliver.

New York Times bestseller"A cogent analysis of the concurrent Trump/Brexit phenomena and a dire warning about what lies ahead...a lucid, provocative book." --Kirkus Reviews Those who championed globalization once promised a world of winners, one in which free trade would lift all the world's boats, and extremes of left and right would give way to universally embraced liberal values. The past few years have shattered this fantasy, as those who've paid the price for globalism's gains have turned to populist and nationalist politicians to express fury at the political, media, and corporate elites they blame for their losses. The United States elected an anti-immigration, protectionist president who promised to "put America first" and turned a cold eye on alliances and treaties. Across Europe, anti-establishment political parties made gains not seen in decades. The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union.And as Ian Bremmer shows in this eye-opening book, populism is still spreading. Globalism creates plenty of both winners and losers, and those who've missed out want to set things right. They've seen their futures made obsolete. They hear new voices and see new faces all about them. They feel their cultures shift. They don't trust what they read. They've begun to understand the world as a battle for the future that pits "us" vs. "them." Bremmer points to the next wave of global populism, one that hits emerging nations before they have fully emerged. As in Europe and America, citizens want security and prosperity, and they're becoming increasingly frustrated with governments that aren't capable of providing them. To protect themselves, many government will build walls, both digital and physical. For instance... * In Brazil and other fast-developing countries, civilians riot when higher expectations for better government aren't being met--the downside of their own success in lifting millions from poverty. * In Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, Indonesia, Egypt and other emerging states, frustration with government is on the rise and political battle lines are being drawn. * In China, where awareness of inequality is on the rise, the state is building a system to use the data that citizens generate to contain future demand for change * In India, the tools now used to provide essential services for people who've never had them can one day be used to tighten the ruling party's grip on power. When human beings feel threatened, we identify the danger and look for allies. We use the enemy, real or imagined, to rally friends to our side. This book is about the ways in which people will define these threats as fights for survival. It's about the walls governments will build to protect insiders from outsiders and the state from its people.And it's about what we can do about it.

From the bestselling author of The End of the Free Market, the story of three provocative choices facing the world’s sole superpower.Global policy expert Ian Bremmer calls for a complete rethink of America’s role in tomorrow’s world. In an increasingly volatile international environment, the question has never been more important. Bremmer explores three choices, each with its own benefits and drawbacks:“Independent America” argues that it’s time for Washington to declare independence from the responsibility to solve everyone else’s problems. Instead, America should lead by example by investing in America’s enormous untapped potential.“Moneyball America” acknowledges that we can’t manage every international challenge but asserts that we must defend U.S. interests wherever they’re threatened. It looks beyond phony arguments about American exceptionalism with a clear-eyed assessment of U.S. strengths and limitations.“Indispensable America” insists that only Washington can promote the values on which global stability increasingly depends in our hyper-connected world. Turning inward would threaten America’s security and prosperity.Bremmer makes his best pitch for each scenario, offers his own conclusions, and challenges the reader to choose.

G-Zero — \JEE-ZEER-oh\ —n. A world order in which no single country or durable alliance of countries can meet the challenges of global leadership. What happens when the G20 doesn’t work and the G7 is history? If the worst threatened—a rogue nuclear state with a horrible surprise, a global health crisis, the collapse of financial institutions from New York to Shang­hai and Mumbai—where would the world look for leadership? The United States, with its paralyzed politics and battered balance sheet? A European Union reeling from self-inflicted wounds? China’s “people’s democracy”? Perhaps Brazil, Turkey, or India, the geopolitical Rookies of the Year? Or some grand coalition of survivors, the last nations stand­ing after half a decade of recession-induced turmoil? How about none of the above? For the first time in seven decades, there is no single power or alliance of powers ready to take on the challenges of global leadership. A generation ago, the United States, Europe, and Japan were the world’s powerhouses, the free-market democracies that propelled the global economy forward. Today, they struggle just to find their footing. Acclaimed geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer argues that the world is facing a leadership vacuum. The diverse political and economic values of the G20 have produced global gridlock. Now that so many challenges transcend borders—from the stability of the global economy and climate change to cyber-attacks, terrorism, and the security of food and water—the need for international cooperation has never been greater. A lack of global leadership will provoke uncertainty, volatility, competition, and, in some cases, open conflict. Bremmer explains the risk that the world will become a series of gated commu­nities as power is regionalized instead of globalized. In the generation to come, negotiations on economic and trade issues are likely to be just as fraught as recent debates over nuclear nonproliferation and climate change. Disaster, thankfully, is never assured, and Brem­mer details where the levers of power can still be found and how to exercise them for the common good. That’s important, because the one certainty of weakened nations and enfeebled institutions is that someone will try to take advantage of them.Every Nation for Itself offers essential insights for anyone attempting to navigate the new global play­ing field.

An international expert presents an analysis of why and how nations make business decisions while demonstrating how the U.S. can best act in its own interests, revealing how the examples of Saddam Hussein and Fidel Castro can inform us about North Korea's Kim Jong-il, the role America should take in strengthening China's economy, and the importance of acting in Saudi Arabia before it is broken apart. 40,000 first printing.

Understanding the rise of state capitalism and its threat to global free markets The End of the Free Market details the growing phenomenon of state capitalism, a system in which governments drive local economies through ownership of market-dominant companies and large pools of excess capital, using them for political gain. This trend threatens America's competitive edge and the conduct of free markets everywhere. An expert on the intersection of economics and politics, Ian Bremmer has followed the rise of state-owned firms in China, Russia, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, Iran, Venezuela, and elsewhere. He demonstrates the growing challenge that state capitalism will pose for the entire global economy. Among the questions addressed: Are we on the brink of a new kind of Cold War, one that pits competing economic systems in a battle for dominance? Can free market countries compete with state capitalist powerhouses over relations with countries that have elements of both systems-like India, Brazil, and Mexico? Does state capitalism have staying power? This guide to the next big global economic trend includes useful insights for investors, business leaders, policymakers, and anyone who wants to understand important emerging changes in international politics and the global economy.

In recent years, investors have learned the hard truth that in the international economy, politics often matters at least as much as economic fundamentals for the performance of global markets. Too many companies and investors haven't yet learned to read the warning their expertise lies much more in economics than politics, and the temptation is to hope that highly volatile situations such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation will be few and far between. But as Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat demonstrate, these scenarios--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than we imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the 'tail' of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. This groundbreaking book is the first to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. Authored by Ian Bremmer (author of the bestselling The J-Curve ) and Preston Keat, the president and research director (respectively) of Eurasia Group, the world's leading political risk consultancy firm, The Fat Tail is an indispensable guide for anyone involved in the international economy.

From the world’s leading experts on geopolitical risk, a guide to the major global issues and policies sure to dominate headlines in the next few years.In the last four years, the world has suffered a financial market meltdown and subsequent global recession. The eurozone crisis looms, the Middle East is in turmoil, and a shifting power balance between emerging markets and developed economies is reordering the global economy as a whole. Political and economic challenges intertwine now more than ever before, as the demands of local politics and global business grow increasingly complex and begin to conflict in new ways. Facing these new challenges, what will the future hold?Ian Bremmer and Douglas Rediker, together with experts, analysts, and many of their colleagues from the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk, analyze these global issues and provide a template to understand how they will change our world in the next few years. Focusing on the most volatile, powerful, or misunderstood developments, the authors examine, among other The risks to the International Monetary Fund Russia’s future The roles of emerging markets The political roots of the eurozone crisis Important trends and tensions in Asia-Pacific The rise of regionalism in the wake of fracturing international governanceMost importantly, the contributors provide guidance on how to understand some of the key dynamics in the rapidly evolving global game.

Un libro indispensable para entender los retos del siglo XXI a nivel mundial El autor es un renombrado politólogo que recoge las enseñanzas que ha tenido el mundo en los últimos 100 años para ver cómo podemos enfrentar las amenazas que se el calentamiento global, la inteligencia artificial y una pandemia más grave que el Covid-19. Es un ensayo muy interesante que, a pesar de las tres amenazas que ya son una realidad, es optimista porque según el autor, tenemos las soluciones a la mano.

国際言論団プロジェクトシンジケートの叢書３弾！ 地政学的リスク分析を専門とする米戦略コンサルティングファーム、ユーラシア・グループが毎年発表する「世界十大リスク」では、2013年最大のリスクのうち、5つが東アジアに集中しています。裏返せば、それだけアジアは躍動し、大きな可能性を示しているともいえます。 大川周明の名著『復興亜細亜の諸問題』から90年、日本には、戦略的地平を見つめなおすことが求められています。新しいアジア地政学には、その注目度の高さを映して、各国の戦略思索家が寄稿。 激動する、可能性に満ちたアジア――。日本をとりまく現実を直視するための一冊です。 も く じ １ 国際紛争の一年へようこそ！ イアン・ブレマー（ユーラシア・グループ創業社長） ハビエル・ソラナ（元NATO事務総長） ２ アジアの海とナショナリズム ジョセフ・S・ナイ（元米国防次官補） ３ 日本のナショナリストの出番 ジョセフ・S・ナイ ４ 台頭する中国のシーパワー 金田秀昭（元海将） ５ ナショナリズムに駆られるアジアの虎 クリストファー・R・ヒル（元米国務次官補） ６ 日中の競争意識をたどる

Us vs. Them (Lead Title)

Well-known political scientist Ian Bremmer draws lessons from the greatest crises of the last century—including the pandemic—to show how best to handle the four great crises we will face over the next decade.Two years after the worst global health crisis in a century, the world is still struggling to regain its footing. And yet the pandemic has also served as both a wake-up call and roadmap for the limited cooperation needed to navigate the challenges ahead.In this revelatory book, Bremmer lays out a series of coming crises—US-China confrontation, future health emergencies, climate change, and the AI revolution. To survive and solve these complex problems, we must learn the lessons the pandemic can teach us, work intelligently together on issues that threaten every nation, and share responsibility for the dangers that loom over all of us.Drawing on the lessons of the past century, Bremmer argues effectively that we need a crisis big enough to frighten us into building a new international system that is built for today’s—and tomorrow’s—purpose. Bremmer tell us what governments, corporations, and individuals can do to ensure that all the destruction of recent years will have been “creative destruction” and that COVID can show us how to set a new course toward a more peaceful and prosperous future. It will take vision, stamina, and a leap of faith, but if we take practical action now, we can build a better world.

O autor mostra a governos, empresas e a todos os cidadãos preocupados como podemos usar essas crises futuras para criar a prosperidade e a oportunidade que o globalismo do século XX prometeu e não entregou.

*Traduçã Luiz Euclydes T. Frazão FilhoEstamos à beira de um novo tipo de Guerra Fria, uma guerra que lança sistemas econômicos concorrentesem uma batalha por disputa de domínio? Diversos governos autoritários, atraídos pelo poder econômico do capitalismo, mas cautelosos em relação aos mercados livres e descontrolados, inventaram algo de O capitalismo estatal. Nesse sistema, os governos usam os mercados para gerar riquezas que podem ser direcionadas da maneira que os políticos bem entendem. O capitalismo estatal assume muitas a realeza saudita utiliza as vultosas receitas do reino provenientes da comercialização do petróleo para comprar segurança interna e a fidelidade de seus cidadãos. O governo chinês envia empresas estatais ao exterior em busca de acesso de longo prazo a bens como petróleo, gás, metais e minerais. O primeiro-ministro da Rússia adverte as cadeias de supermercados para os altos preços que esses estabelecimentos estão cobrando pela carne de porco.Como especialista na questão da interseção entre economia e política, Ian Bremmer é um profissional excepcionalmente qualificado para ilustrar a ascensão do capitalismo estatal e sua ameaça à economia mundial em longo prazo. Os principais personagens dessa história são os homens que governam a China, a Rússia e as monarquias árabes do Golfo Pérsico, cujos êxitos têm atraído imitadores em grande parte do mundo emergente. Uma geração após a queda do comunismo, nós estamos testemunhando a espantosa recuperação da riqueza, dos investimentos e das corporações estatais.O Estado domina os principais setores econômicos internos. As empresas de petróleo estatais hoje controlam três quartos das reservas de óleo cru do mundo. Os governos utilizam as estatais para participar dos mercados globais de setores como aviação, navegação marítima, geração de energia, produção de armas, telecomunicações, petroquímica e outros. O Estado possui enormes fundos de investimentos que vêm se transformando rapidamente em fontes de capital de vital importância. Essa tendência ameaça a vantagem competitiva dos Estados Unidos e o futuro do capitalismo de livre mercado.No rastro da crise financeira e da recessão global, os líderes das democracias de livre mercado hoje enfrentam o ceticismo daqueles que acreditam que o livre mercado fracassou e que o Estado deve desempenhar um papel crucial no desempenho econômico nacional. Estamos diante de um enorme problema que trará importantes desafios por várias décadas. Este guia para a próxima grande tendência contém esclarecimentos úteis para investidores, líderes empresariais, formuladores de políticas públicas e qualquer pessoa que queira conhecer as importantes mudanças que vêm ocorrendo na política internacional e na economia mundial.

I conflitti nazionali e internazionali ci espongono, impreparati, a un trittico di crisi le emergenze sanitarie globali, un cambiamento climatico devastante e la rivoluzione dell’intelligenza artificiale. Gli americani non riescono a mettersi d’accordo tra loro su nessuna questione politica rilevante, i leader statunitensi e cinesi si comportano come se fossero intrappolati in una nuova Guerra fredda e gli eserciti sono tornati a scontrarsi in Europa. Stiamo così sprecando l’opportunità di fronteggiare le sfide a cui presto nessuno potrà più sfuggire. Nei prossimi anni l’umanità dovrà combattere virus più letali e contagiosi del Covid. L’intensificarsi del cambiamento climatico metterà in fuga decine di milioni di rifugiati e ci costringerà a ripensare i nostri stili di vita. La sfida più pericolosa sarà però quella delle nuove tecnologie, che riplasmeranno l’ordine geopolitico destabilizzando la società più velocemente della nostra capacità di reazione. La buona notizia? Alcuni leader politici, decisori aziendali e cittadini lungimiranti stanno unendo le forze per affrontare queste crisi. La domanda è se riusciranno a lavorare abbastanza bene e velocemente per contenerne le ricadute e, soprattutto, se sapremo usare queste crisi per reinventare il nostro cammino verso un mondo migliore. Tracciando paralleli con strategie di ieri e di oggi, dal Piano Marshall al Green New Deal, Bremmer indica un piano d’azione per sopravvivere e prosperare anche nel XXI secolo.