Judgment 3.0
About this book
A breakthrough book about how to optimize decision-making in business showing that to achieve the highest performance managers must sometimes act in ways that seem overconfident and make choices that might seem irrational. A great deal has been written in recent years about how irrational human decision-making is, plagued by systematic biases and illusions, such as overconfidence, that inflict great costs in many areas of life. But as Phil Rosenzweig, the critically acclaimed author of The Halo Effect , which Nicholas Nassim Taleb called “one of the most important management books of all time,” shows in this groundbreaking book, when it comes to managerial decision-making, some of the ways of thinking and behaving that have been described as irrational are important in certain circumstances in order to achieve optimal performance. Rosenzweig shows that the judgments managers have to make are different from so much of everyday judgment because managers don’t just choose from possible outcomes but must actually shape outcomes. This means that in order to succeed, managers must often be willing to act with a degree of confidence that might seem excessive, they must inspire people to achieve, they must not allow the odds dictate to them, and they must sometimes make decisions that might seem highly risky in order to prevail against competitors. The key, Rosenzweig shows, is knowing how to switch at the right times from a deliberate, analytical mindset to an implemental, winning mindset, and through lively storytelling about a host of real-life business stories, he explains how to determine which circumstances require which mindset. Judgment 3.0 is a major contribution to the study of decision-making and essential reading for all managers.