Robin M. Hogarth

Every day we make intuitive decisions—from the mundane choice of what clothes to wear to more important issues such as which new car "feels right" or which person would be "good" for a particular job. To varying degrees, logic plays a role in these decisions, but at a certain point all of us rely on intuition, our sixth sense. Is this the right way to decide? Should we trust our gut feelings? When intuition conflicts with logic, what should we do?In Educating Intuition , Robin M. Hogarth lays bare this mysterious process so fundamental to daily life by offering the first comprehensive overview of what the science of psychology can tell us about intuition—where it comes from, how it works, whether we can trust it. From this literature and his own research, Hogarth finds that intuition is a normal and important component of thought that has its roots in processes of tacit learning. Environment, attention, experience, expertise, and the success of the scientific method all form part of Hogarth's perspective on intuition, leading him to the surprising—but natural—conclusion that we can educate our sixth sense. To this end he offers concrete suggestions and exercises to help readers develop their intuitive skills and habits for learning the "right" lessons from experience.Artfully and accessibly combining cognitive science, the latest research in psychology, and Hogarth's own observations, Educating Intuition eschews the vague approach to the topic that has become commonplace and provides instead a wholly engaging and practical guide to enhancing our intuitive skills.

This volume examines the intuitive basis that underlies human decision-making. Formal decision-making methods are discussed, although the emphasis is on the unstructured, natural way people make judgements and exercise choice. The major goal of the book is to help people make better decisions, and the author's psychological point of view differs from the standard texts on the subject, which stress decision-making methodology, statistical decision theory and related subjects. The author observes how people are generally unaware of how they make decisions and, often, why they prefer one alternative to others. A notable theme of this book is that intuition can be both studied and educated. Chapters cover the nature of human judgement, randomness and the probabilistic environment, the role of memory in judgement, creativity, imagination, choice, and more. Appendices.

In an increasingly complex economic and social environment, access to vast amounts of data and information can help organizations and governments make better policies, predictions and decisions. Indeed, more and more decision makers rely on statistical findings and data-based decision models when tackling problems and forming strategies.So far, discussions of data-based decision making have centered mainly on analysis: data collection, technological infrastructures and statistical methods. Yet another vital issue receives far less scrutiny: how analytical results are communicated to decision makers.Data science, like medical diagnostics or scientific research, lies in the hands of expert analysts who must explain their findings to executive decision makers who are often less knowledgeable about formal, statistical reasoning. Yet many behavioral experiments have shown that when the same statistical information is conveyed in different ways, people make drastically different decisions.Description, the authors note, is the default mode of presenting statistical information. This typically involves a verbal statement or a written report, which might feature one or more tables summarizing the findings. But the authors’ own research suggests that descriptions can mislead even the most knowledgeable decision makers. In a recent experiment, they asked 257 economics scholars to make judgments and predictions based on a simple regression analysis. To the authors’ surprise, most of these experts had a hard time accurately deciphering and acting on the results of the kind of analysis they themselves frequently conduct. In particular, the authors found that their description of the findings, which mimicked the industry standard, led to an illusion of predictability -- an erroneous belief that the analyzed outcomes were more predictable than they actually were.The authors argue that simulated experience enables intuitive interpretation of statistical information, thereby communicating analytical results even to decision makers who are not knowledgeable about statistics.