Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Antifragile is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes .Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world.Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In Antifragile, Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.Furthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call “efficient” not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the Titanic save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear.Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb’s message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it.Praise for Antifragile“Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining.” — The Economist“A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . It may just change our lives.” — Newsweek

A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.*2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"

From the New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan, a bold new work that challenges many of our long-held beliefs about risk and reward, politics and religion, finance and personal responsibility In his most provocative and practical book yet, one of the foremost thinkers of our time redefines what it means to understand the world, succeed in a profession, contribute to a fair and just society, detect nonsense, and influence others. Citing examples ranging from Hammurabi to Seneca, Antaeus the Giant to Donald Trump, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows how the willingness to accept one’s own risks is an essential attribute of heroes, saints, and flourishing people in all walks of life. As always both accessible and iconoclastic, Taleb challenges long-held beliefs about the values of those who spearhead military interventions, make financial investments, and propagate religious faiths. Among his insights: • For social justice, focus on symmetry and risk sharing. You cannot make profits and transfer the risks to others, as bankers and large corporations do. You cannot get rich without owning your own risk and paying for your own losses. Forcing skin in the game corrects this asymmetry better than thousands of laws and regulations. • Ethical rules aren’t universal. You’re part of a group larger than you, but it’s still smaller than humanity in general. • Minorities, not majorities, run the world. The world is not run by consensus but by stubborn minorities imposing their tastes and ethics on others. • You can be an intellectual yet still be an idiot. “Educated philistines” have been wrong on everything from Stalinism to Iraq to low-carb diets. • Beware of complicated solutions (that someone was paid to find). A simple barbell can build muscle better than expensive new machines. • True religion is commitment, not just faith. How much you believe in something is manifested only by what you’re willing to risk for it.The phrase “skin in the game” is one we have often heard but rarely stopped to truly dissect. It is the backbone of risk management, but it’s also an astonishingly rich worldview that, as Taleb shows in this book, applies to all aspects of our lives. As Taleb says, “The symmetry of skin in the game is a simple rule that’s necessary for fairness and justice, and the ultimate BS-buster,” and “Never trust anyone who doesn’t have skin in the game. Without it, fools and crooks will benefit, and their mistakes will never come back to haunt them.”

Selected by Amazon.com and the Financial Times as one of the best business books of the year, Fooled by Randomness is an instant classic. It's uniqueness has drawn to it a wide following - from the New Yorker to the Pentagon. Already published in 14 languages, this new edition, expanded by over 80 pages, includes up-to-date advances from behavioral finance and cognitive science This book is about luck ? or more precisely how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill ? the world of trading ? Fooled by Randomness is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. Writting in an entertaining and narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. In this second edition, Taleb manages to use stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

The landmark five-book series—all together in one boxed setThe Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don’t understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it.This boxed set includes:FOOLED BY RANDOMNESSTHE BLACK SWANTHE BED OF PROCRUSTESANTIFRAGILESKIN IN THE GAME

The author of the modern classics The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and Antifragile, Nassim Nicholas Taleb expresses major ideas in ways you least expect in this collection of aphorisms and meditations—now expanded with fifty percent more material than the hardcover.The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from the Greek myth of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection, either by stretching them or by cutting their limbs. It represents Taleb’s view of modern civilization’s hubristic side effects—modifying humans to satisfy technology, blaming reality for not fitting economic models, inventing diseases to sell drugs, defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom, and convincing people that employment is not slavery. Playful and irreverent, these aphorisms will surprise you by exposing self-delusions you have been living with but never recognized. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical values of courage, elegance, and erudition with the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phonies.

The monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible.Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress". Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under of the "laws of the medium numbers" --which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence.A few + The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naive empiricism", but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods.+ The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical.+ Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics.+ Dimension reduction (principal components) fails.+ Inequality estimators (GINI or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results.+ Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions+ Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions.This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

Destined to become a market classic, Dynamic Hedging is the only practical reference in exotic options hedgingand arbitrage for professional traders and money managersWatch the professionals. From central banks to brokerages to multinationals, institutional investors are flocking to a new generation of exotic and complex options contracts and derivatives. But the promise of ever larger profits also creates the potential for catastrophic trading losses. Now more than ever, the key to trading derivatives lies in implementing preventive risk management techniques that plan for and avoid these appalling downturns. Unlike other books that offer risk management for corporate treasurers, Dynamic Hedging targets the real-world needs of professional traders and money managers. Written by a leading options trader and derivatives risk advisor to global banks and exchanges, this book provides a practical, real-world methodology for monitoring and managing all the risks associated with portfolio management.Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the founder of Empirica Capital LLC, a hedge fund operator, and a fellow at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University. He has held a variety of senior derivative trading positions in New York and London and worked as an independent floor trader in Chicago. Dr. Taleb was inducted in February 2001 in the Derivatives Strategy Hall of Fame. He received an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from University Paris-Dauphine.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs.

The hidden role of of chance in life and in the markets.The impact of the highly improbable

Tre anni dopo la pubblicazione del "Cigno nero", un "racconto filosofico" acclamato in tutto il mondo, Nassim Nicholas Taleb fa il bilancio della vita del suo libro. L'idea talebiana del Cigno nero ha conquistato milioni di lettori e fecondato la ricerca in campi molto diversi, dalla filosofia alla statistica, dalla sociologia alla psicologia, agli studi sul clima, alla medicina. Meno feconda questa idea si è rivelata invece in economia, l'area più immediatamente vicina agli interessi dell'autore. Sulla crisi del 2008, e sugli economisti che dovrebbero analizzarla e curarla, Taleb si sofferma in questo nuovo libro, con annotazioni che hanno il sapore dell'ironia e dello scetticismo. E, ancora una volta, ribalta i sedicenti "esperti di rischi" che in questi tre anni hanno risposto all'autore con ostilità, dimostrando la loro inguaribile cecità ai Cigni neri. "Robustezza e fragilità" riassume tre anni di vita di un'idea forte, in grado di modificare i nostri paradigmi mentali; tre anni che hanno anche trasformato, in meglio, la vita dell'autore. Taleb ha incontrato filosofi, scrittori, scienziati, uomini di stato, lettori comuni e persino buoni economisti, si è confrontato con loro, ne ha ascoltato conferme e obiezioni, ha visto crescere e svilupparsi la sua idea nel mondo. Da questi incontri è nato "Robustezza e fragilità", il suo nuovo racconto filosofico dove, fornendoci una carta topografica dell'Estremistan, Taleb ci insegna come muoverci in un mondo dominato dal caso e dall'incertezza.

Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country's future trajectory is not a lengthy past stability, but recent moderate volatility.

Πρόκειται για μία ανάλυση του ρόλου της αβεβαιότητας στον τομέα των χρηματοπιστωτικών αγορών και την τυφλότητα της οικονομικής επιστήμης ως προς το ενδεχόμενο οικονομικής κατάρρευσης. Στην πρώτη έκδοση του βιβλίου, που κυκλοφόρησε στις Η.Π.Α. το 2007, ο πολυπράγμων επιχειρηματίας, trader και καθηγητής Πανεπιστημίου, ουσιαστικά διείδε και εξήγησε την παγκόσμια οικονομική κρίση του 2008, ένα χρόνο πριν αυτή συμβεί. Στη δεύτερη, εμπλουτισμένη έκδοση, η οποία κυκλοφορεί τώρα στα Ελληνικά, ο συγγραφέας προσέθεσε ένα επιλογικό δοκίμιο 73 σελίδων, με τίτλο «Στιβαρά και Εύθραυστα», όπου αναφέρεται διεξοδικά στην κρίση. Ένα βιβλίο-ορόσημο για τον 21ο αιώνα, μία ενδελεχής επισκόπηση του σύγχρονου, ευμετάβλητου κόσμου μας.Η έκδοση του βιβλίου πραγματοποιήθηκε με την ευγενική χορηγία της Efa Group.

Please Note That The Following Individual Books As Per Original ISBN and Cover Image In this Listing shall be Dispatched Collectively: Nassim Nicholas Taleb 3 Books Collection Set (The Black Swan, Antifragile, Fooled by Randomness): The Black Swan: What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Greats lovers tell us about probability. Antifragile: In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. Here Taleb stands uncer­tainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary. Fooled by Randomness: Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world.

A philosophical notebook continually updated since 2005. The content parallels Taleb's published works.http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/not...

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, parte ensaísta literário, parte empirista, parte operador de ações objetivo, dedicou a vida a mergulhar nos problemas da sorte, da incerteza, da probabilidade e do conhecimento. Neste box exclusivo o leitor terá acesso a dois dos maiores sucessos do Antifrágil, A lógica do cisne negro. Antifrágil (664 páginas) Nassim Nicholas Taleb proclama a incerteza como algo desejável — e até necessário —, além de propor que construamos mais coisas resistentes ao imponderável, estabelecendo o conceito do antifrágil. Por que as cidades-estado são melhores que os estados-nação? Por que o débito é ruim para voce? Por que o que chamamos de “eficiencia” não é nem um pouco eficiente? Por que as respostas e políticas sociais do governo protegem os fortes e ferem os fracos? Por que voce deve escrever sua carta de demissão antes mesmo de começar no emprego? Como o desastre do Titanic salvou vidas? Estas e outras perguntas são respondidas neste livro que engloba análises sobre inovações e melhorias feitas a partir de tentativa e erro, decisões que podem mudar uma vida inteira, política, planejamento urbano, guerra, finanças pessoais, sistemas econômicos e medicina.A lógica do cisne negro (464 páginas) O que o sucesso do Google e o 11 de setembro tem em comum? Para Nassim Nicholas Taleb, ambos são exemplos claros de Cisnes eventos imprevisíveis e impactantes cuja natureza extraordinária está na base de quase tudo o que acontece no mundo, da ascensão das religiões à nossa vida pessoal. Em A lógica do Cisne Negro, um dos maiores especialistas de risco da atualidade propõe o mapeamento e a gestão do desconhecido, do pouco provável, do extremo. Para o autor, a fragilidade do conhecimento e a limitação do aprendizado baseado na observação e na experiencia levam o ser humano a se defrontar com situações totalmente inesperadas. Nesta obra, o leitor aprenderá, com ideia simples, a tirar proveito de Cisnes Negros e ter outra visão de mundo.

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内容简介 《黑天鹅｜反脆弱｜随机生存的智慧（共三册）》包括：《黑天鹅：如何应对不可知的未来》《反脆弱：从不确定性中获益（罗辑思维罗振宇精品推荐）》《随机生存的智慧：黑天鹅语录（中信管理经典）》。《黑天鹅：如何应对不可知的未来》内容简介：在发现澳大利亚的黑天鹅之前，欧洲人认为天鹅都是白色的，“黑天鹅”曾经是他们言谈与写作中的惯用语，用来指不可能存在的事物，但这个不可动摇的信念随着第一只黑天鹅的出现而崩溃。黑天鹅的存在寓示着不可预测的重大稀有事件，它在意料之外，却又改变一切，但人们总是对它视而不见，并习惯于以自己有限的生活经验和不堪一击的信念来解释这些意料之外的重大冲击，最终被现实击溃。从次贷危机到东南亚海啸，从“9. 11”事件到“泰坦尼克号”的沉没，黑天鹅存在于各个领域，无论金融市场、商业、经济还是个人生活，都逃不过它的控制。怎样才能真正认识这个社会的运行方式？怎样才能避免小概率事件带来的重大损失？怎样才能在不确定的世界中占得先机？升级版新增作者全新后记，深入分析不确定性带给我们的影响，教你以全新的视角理解现实世界，采取有效的策略防范未知风险，并把握黑天鹅带来的机会，从中受益。毋庸置疑，它将颠覆我们惯常的思维，让你重新掌握自己的命运。读者对象:关心经济金融的大众读者、财经业内人士《反脆弱：从不确定性中获益（罗辑思维罗振宇精品推荐）》内容简介：尼采有句名言：“杀不死我的，只会让我更坚强。”正如人体骨骼在负重和压力下反而会越发强壮，谣言和暴动在遏制和镇压下反而愈演愈烈一样，我们生活中的许许多多事物也会从压力、混乱、波动和动荡中受益。塔勒布在《反脆弱》一书中所定义的“反脆弱性”，是那些不仅能从混乱和波动中受益，而且需要这种混乱和波动才能维持生存和实现繁荣的事物的特性。在《黑天鹅》中，塔勒布向我们揭示了极其罕见而不可预测的事件如何潜伏在世间万物的背后，而在《反脆弱》中，他极力为不确定性正名，让我们看到它有益的一面，甚至证明其存在的必要性，他还建议我们以反脆弱性的方式构建事物。值得注意的是，反脆弱性是一个超越复原力和强韧性的概念。复原力只是事物抵御冲击，并在重创后复原的能力；而反脆弱性则进一步超越了复原力，让事物在压力下逆势生长、蒸蒸日上。此外，反脆弱性能对预测错误免疫，也可以免受有害事件的影响。为什么城邦制国家优于集权制国家？为什么负债会置你于不利境地？为什么我们所说的“效率”并未给我们带来真正的效率？为什么政府行动和社会政策总是保护强者而伤害弱者？为什么你应该在开始工作前就写好辞职信？为什么“泰坦尼克”号的沉没挽救了更多人的生命？本书涵盖了诸多议题，包括试错法、生活中的决策、政治、城市规划、战争、个人理财、经济体系和医学领域。除了布鲁克林的胖子托尼的市井智慧，源自古罗马、古希腊、闪米特与中世纪的声音和经验也如历史遗珠般贯穿全文，闪烁着令人深省的智慧之光。本书是引导我们在黑天鹅的世界中持续生存下去的行动指南。《随机生存的智慧：黑天鹅语录（中信管理经典）》内容简介：为什么我们宁可用药物改变孩子的大脑，好让他们跟上学校课程，也不愿意调整课程安排来符合孩子的天性？《黑天鹅》作者塔勒布在《随机生存的智慧》中用最出人意料的方式表达了他对这个荒谬世界的看法。现代文明在给人类生活带来便利的同时，也产生了不少负面效应——它惯于通过改变人来适应科技，责怪现实不符合经济学模型，为了推销药品而发明新的疾病，把智力定义为可以在教室里考核的东西，说服人们相信雇佣并不是奴役。塔勒布在《随机生存的智慧》一书中主张：智慧的每一次失败，都可以归结为削足适履的结果。塔勒布还在《随机生存的智慧》中入木三分地分析了你所处世界的随机本质，道破人们视而不见的思维陷阱。《随机生存的智慧》汇集了塔勒布深入洞察生活的格言，轻松活泼，毫不刻板，但却能让你大吃一惊，因为它揭示出你其实无意识地生活在错觉之中。凭借尖锐的才思和深远的智慧，塔勒布为我们剖析了这些错觉的本质，倡导用勇气、优雅和博学等经典价值观来抵抗庸俗和虚伪等现代病态。 作者简介 《黑天鹅：如何应对不可知的未来》作者简介：Nassim Nicholas Taleb《反脆弱：从不确定性中获益（罗辑思维罗振宇精品推荐）》作者简介：纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（NassimNicholasTaleb），畅销书《黑天鹅》、《随机漫步的傻瓜》、《随机生存的智慧》作者，我们这个时代伟大的思想者之一。塔勒布倾其一生研究不确定性、概率和知识的问题。在2006年成为一个全职作家和学术研究者之前，塔勒布做了20年的商人和交易员。现在他受聘于纽约大学理工学院，任风险工程学特聘教授。大部分时间他都喜欢待在书房中闭关研习，或者在咖啡馆里像漫游者一样冥思。他的主要研究课题是“在不透明环境下的决策”，为引导我们如何生活在一个我们并不理解的世界中提供指南或原则。塔勒布的书已被译为33国语言在全球发行。《随机生存的智慧：黑天鹅语录（中信管理经典）》作者简介：作者：(美国)戴纳西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布 译者：严冬冬戴纳西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布，绝大多数时候都是一名漫游者，在地球各个角落的咖啡厅里冥想。他早年曾经从商，目前是纽约大学特聘教授。曾在纽约和伦敦交易多种衍生性金融商品，也曾在芝加哥当过营业厅的独立交易员。2001年2月正式成为衍生性金融商品交易战略名人堂的一员。他的作品包括《随机致富的傻瓜》和《黑天鹅》，后者曾连续一年多列位《纽约时报》畅销书榜，以31种语言出版，是一本知识、社会和文化方面的经典著作。

The Logic and Statistics of Fat Tails is the definitive source on fat-taileddistribution and an essential technical read for students, accountants and thoseworking in finance.

Intrygująca książka jednego z najbardziej znanych ekonomistów na świecie, która podważa nasze przekonania na temat ryzyka i korzyści, polityki i religii, finansów i osobistej odpowiedzialności. W swojej najbardziej jak dotąd prowokacyjnej książce jeden z czołowych myślicieli naszych czasów definiuje na nowo, co to znaczy zrozumieć świat, odnieść sukces w zawodzie, współtworzyć rzetelne i sprawiedliwe społeczeństwo, umieć wykrywać nonsensy i wpływać na innych. Powołując się na przykłady od Hammurabiego do Seneki, od giganta Anteusza po Donalda Trumpa, Nassim Nicholas Taleb pokazuje, jak gotowość do zaakceptowania ryzyka własnego stanowi niezbędny atrybut bohaterów, świętych i ludzi odnoszących sukcesy we wszystkich dziedzinach życia. Autor, w sposób jak zawsze jednocześnie przystępny i obrazoburczy, rzuca wyzwanie wielowiekowym przekonaniom na temat cnót tych, którzy stoją na czele wojskowych interwencji, dokonują inwestycji finansowych oraz promują religijne wyznania.

Պատմում է կյանքի համաչափության մասին, և որ համաչափության բացակայությունը բերում է համակարգերի խափանման: Նաև այն մասին, թե ինչու աշխարհըմբռնման համար սպիներն անհրաժեշտ են, ինչու ռիսկի դիմած ձախողակներն ավելի համակրելի են, քան ռիսկից խուսափող հաջողակները, ինչու է նշանի մատանին խոստումից կարևոր, ինչով է առանց զոհաբերության հավատը նման գողության, և թե ինչից է, որ (մոտիվացված) փոքրամասնությունները, այլ ոչ՝ մեծամասնություններն են աշխարհը կառավարում:

This Incerto Series 5 Books Set (Hardcover Edition) includes: 1. Fooled by Randomness 9781400067930 2. The Black Swan: Second Edition 9781400063512 3. Antifragile 9781400067824 4. The Bed of Procrustes 9781400069972 5. Skin in the Game 9780425284629

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.Includes bonus pdf of tables and figures. PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS : Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.” –Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink “The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.” –Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999 “Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.” –Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving “Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.” –Michael Schrage, author of Serious How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate “We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.” –Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance “Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.” –National Review