Michael Pillsbury

One of the U.S. government's leading China experts reveals the hidden strategy fueling that country's rise – and how Americans have been seduced into helping China overtake us as the world's leading superpower.For more than forty years, the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government build a booming economy, develop its scientific and military capabilities, and take its place on the world stage, in the belief that China's rise will bring us cooperation, diplomacy, and free trade. But what if the "China Dream" is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot?Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on his decades of contact with the "hawks" in China's military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will be the architects of their own demise.Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this "China Dream" come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be. The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the twenty-first century.

This study offers over 600 selected quotations from the writings of over 200 Chinese authors published from 1994 to 1999. Analysis and interpretation are kept to a minimum so that the Chinese may speak for themselves. Many Chinese scholars assisted with this study by providing hard-to-get books and articles unfamiliar to most Westerners. Half the authors were interviewed in China. They explained some of the viewpoints in recent debates about the future security environment. Debates in China are generally concealed, and frequently authors pretend they do not exist. However muted they may be, China's debates about the future nevertheless exist and merit attention if we are to understand the premises of China's national strategy and set a baseline from which to measure any future change in these premises.

An introduction to the works of authoritative & innovative Chinese authors whose writings focus on the future of the Chinese military. These carefully selected, representative essays make Chinese military thinking more accessible to western readers. It reveals, for example, Chinas keen interest in the Revolution in military affairs. This volume is an important starting point for understanding Chinas future military modernization. Must reading for every executive of every Western firm doing business in China. Readers will be impressed by Chinas ambitions in space, information warfare, stealth, & robots, in future warfare. Photos.

The Journal of International Security Affairs is a semi-annual, scholarly journal covering foreign and defense policy with articles, interviews, and book reviews.This issue - Fall/Winter 2012 - offers insights beyond the “revolution in military affairs, typified by new adversaries, new battlefields and new tactics. Today, the challenge is more profound than ever. New technologies have given non-state actors such as al-Qaeda an unprecedented ability to exert influence over nation-state behavior. Rogue nations such as Iran and North Korea increasingly exhibit extensive ballistic missile and nuclear capabilities and are actively seeking to acquire more. Meanwhile, strategic competitors (like Russia and China) are busy making major investments in everything from cyber capabilities to space warfare.To address these questions, and others, The Journal leads off with a quintet of articles focusing on “The Future of Warfare.” Admiral William H. McRaven, the commander of United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), lays out how America’s special operators are augmenting security through a range of direct and indirect action and, in the process, expanding the ability of partner nations to do the same. General Norton Schwartz, the recently retired Air Force Chief of Staff, explains the rationale behind the Pentagon’s new “Air-Sea Battle” concept, and outlines how it will help America confront new threats facing the U.S. and its allies. Mark Schneider of the National Institute for Public Policy lays out the pressures now facing the U.S. arsenal—and the dire consequences that will result if America doesn’t get serious about its strategic capabilities. The George C. Marshall Institute’s Eric Sterner then makes a compelling case that Washington needs to get beyond rhetoric and begin to truly treat space as a new medium for conflict. Finally, Frank Cilluffo and J. Richard Knop of The George Washington University explain the changing nature of cyber threats to the U.S. homeland—and suggest a way forward for both cyber defense and cyber offense. We then turn our attention to President Obama’s foreign policy record. The Legatum Institute’s Jeff Gedmin, a former Director of Radio Free Europe, leads off by looking at U.S. strategic communications—and where it is currently falling short. Jamie Fly and Evan Moore of the Foreign Policy Initiative take a critical look at the old thinking that animates the Obama administration’s approach to nuclear policy. Thomas Joscelyn of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies then takes aim at exactly what the White House has—and hasn’t—accomplished in the arena of counterterrorism. In turn, Andrew Davenport of RWR Advisory outlines our current approach to economic pressure, and explains why and how much more can be done. From there, the American Foreign Policy Council’s Herman Pirchner underscores the missteps and that have plagued the Administration’s outreach toward Russia. Defense expert Mike Pillsbury does the same with China, outlining the misconceptions that continue to plague American policy toward the PRC. Last but not least, yours truly explains why the Administration’s approach has fallen short of addressing the menace posed by Iran and its nuclear program. The “Perspective” interviewee is one of Washington’s consummate defense insiders, former Under Secretary of State and Pentagon Defense Science Board Chairman Dr. William Schneider, Jr. We also have “dispatches” examining developments in Chile, Turkey and Pakistan. Concluding this edition are four important new on intelligence, the Arab world, international law and the unfolding Cold War between Israel and Iran.

The first two parts of this study present the results of a survey of Chinese writings that discovered 30 proposals that China should acquire several types of anti satellite weapons. Many foreign observers have mistakenly claimed that China is a pacifistic nation and has no interest such weapons. The Director of the US National Reconnaissance Office Donald Kerr confirmed a Chinese laser had illuminated a US satellite in 2006. These skeptical observers dismissed that laser incident, but then appeared to be stunned by the reported Chinese destruction of a satellite January 11, 2007. China declined to confirm the event, but many foreign governments immediately protested, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada and Britain, while Russia's defense minister suggested the report may not be fully accurate.