Michael E. Raynor

A compelling vision. Bold leadership. Decisive action. Unfortunately, these prerequisites of success are almost always the ingredients of failure, too. In fact, most managers seeking to maximize their chances for glory are often unwittingly setting themselves up for ruin. The sad truth is that most companies have left their futures almost entirely to chance, and don’t even realize it. The reason? Managers feel they must make choices with far-reaching consequences today, but must base those choices on assumptions about a future they cannot predict. It is this collision between commitment and uncertainty that creates THE STRATEGY PARADOX.This paradox sets up a ubiquitous but little-understood tradeoff. Because managers feel they must base their strategies on assumptions about an unknown future, the more ambitious of them hope their guesses will be right – or that they can somehow adapt to the turbulence that will arise. In fact, only a small number of lucky daredevils prosper, while many more unfortunate, but no less capable managers find themselves at the helms of sinking ships. Realizing this, even if only intuitively, most managers shy away from the bold commitments that success seems to demand, choosing instead timid, unremarkable strategies, sacrificing any chance at greatness for a better chance at mere survival.Michael E. Raynor, coauthor of the bestselling The Innovator's Solution, explains how leaders can break this tradeoff and achieve results historically reserved for the fortunate few even as they reduce the risks they must accept in the pursuit of success. In the cutthroat world of competitive strategy, this is as close as you can come to getting something for nothing.Drawing on leading-edge scholarship and extensive original research, Raynor’s revolutionary principle of Requisite Uncertainty yields a clutch of critical, counter-intuitive findings. Among -- The Board should not evaluate the CEO based on the company’s performance, but instead on the firm’s strategic risk profile-- The CEO should not drive results, but manage uncertainty-- Business unit leaders should not focus on execution, but on making strategic choices-- Line managers should not worry about strategic risk, but devote themselves to delivering on commitmentsWith detailed case studies of success and failure at Sony, Microsoft, Vivendi Universal, Johnson & Johnson, AT&T and other major companies in industries from financial services to energy, Raynor presents a concrete framework for strategic action that allows companies to seize today’s opportunities while simultaneously preparing for tomorrow’s promise.

Finally, an answer to the ultimate business How do some companies achieve exceptional performance over the long term? In every sector, there’s an outlier. In the phar­maceutical industry, it’s Merck. In discount retail, it’s Family Dollar. It used to be Wrig­ley in candy and Maytag in appliances. Other superstars have been hidden in plain sight, like Heartland Express in trucking or Linear Technology in semiconductors. How do these exceptional companies deliver superior perfor­mance over the long run despite facing the same constraints as competitors? What are they doing differently? What can we learn from them? Michael E. Raynor and Mumtaz Ahmed have analyzed data on more than 25,000 com­panies spanning forty-five years. Their five-year study began with a sophisticated statistical analysis to identify which companies have truly exceptional performance, 344 in all. In collaboration with teams of researchers, Raynor and Ahmed then put a carefully chosen representative sample of twenty-seven com­panies under the microscope to uncover what made the stand-out performers different. They found that exceptional companies, when faced with difficult decisions, follow three The rules provide an indispensable compass that any company can use to chart its own path to greatness. Is it better to keep price down or invest in creating value that commands a higher price? Should you focus on talent and develop­ing the abilities of your people or build processes to extend the capabilities of your organization? How about acquiring a sizable competitor to secure economies of scale—or a small start-up to gain access to new technology? According to Raynor and Ahmed, the right answers to these and just about every other question are the ones most closely aligned with the rules. The Three Rules is built on a powerful combina­tion of large-scale data analysis and in-depth case studies. Its guidance will increase the chance that your organization can become truly exceptional.

In this compelling new book, Michael E. Raynor, coauthor of the national bestseller The Innovator’s Solution, shows that Disruption, Clayton M. Christensen’s landmark theory that explains how fringe ideas come to redefine entire markets, not only explains why new businesses emerge and mature companies fall – it actually helps to predict the future success of new ventures more accurately. Raynor’s groundbreaking research, and deeper understanding of the mechanisms and drivers of Disruption make this approach to innovation more powerful and more useful than ever. Despite the groaning shelves of books offering advice on innovation, most managers continue to struggle to create the profitable growth their companies need. The reason? The vast majority of management theories base their prescriptions on explanations of the past. When it comes to predicting successful innovation, a willingness to apply the empirical and theoretical rigor of the scientific method to prove what will work in the real world has been notable by its absence. Until now. In the Innovator’s Manifesto, Michael E. Raynor, a director at Deloitte Consulting, LLP., coauthor of The Innovator’s Solution, and author of The Strategy Paradox, shows how Disruption theory can help managers more accurately predict which businesses will survive – and which will die. In fact, Raynor argues that Disruption theory is the only theory which has been statistically proven to be an effective predictive tool. The book draws on the research of the New Business Initiatives (NBI) group at Intel, analyzing forty-eight new ventures that NBI researched, scrutinized, and ultimately funded. The group’s success rate was comparable to venture capitalists throughout the industry – roughly 10 percent. However, when the principles of Disruption theory were applied to these forty-eight funded ventures in controlled experiments, the subjects’ accuracy rates improved significantly – by almost 40 percent. Raynor replicated these experiments with over 300 MBA students at schools in the United States and Canada, including Harvard, with even more impressive results: systematic improvements in predictive accuracy of up to 50 percent. In other words, not only is disruption effective, it can be readily and successfully taught and applied.The Innovator’s Manifesto is the most significant advance in our understanding of the mechanisms and implications of Disruption theory since Christensen’s seminal 1997 work, The Innovator’s Dilemma. For the first time disruption theory has been shown to give managers and investors effective tools they can use in their efforts to create the success they seek.