John Sides

A unique "moneyball" look at the 2012 U.S. presidential contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney"Game changer." We heard it so many times during the 2012 U.S. presidential election. But what actually made a difference in the contest-and what was just hype? In this groundbreaking book, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck tell the dramatic story of the election-with a big difference. Using an unusual "moneyball" approach and drawing on extensive quantitative data, they look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that often pass for election analysis to separate what was truly important from what was irrelevant. The Gamble combines this data with the best social science research and colorful on-the-ground reporting, providing the most accurate and precise account of the election yet written-and the only book of its kind.In a new preface, the authors reflect on the place of The Gamble in the tradition of presidential election studies, its reception to date, and possible paths for future social science research.

A gripping, in-depth account of the 2016 presidential election that explains Donald Trump's historic victoryDonald Trump's election victory stunned the world. How did he pull it off? Was it his appeal to alienated voters in the battleground states? Was it Hillary Clinton and the scandals associated with her long career in politics? Were key factors already in place before the nominees were even chosen? Identity Crisis provides a gripping account of the campaign that appeared to break all the political rules--but in fact didn't.Identity Crisis takes readers from the bruising primaries to an election night whose outcome defied the predictions of the pollsters and pundits. The book shows how fundamental characteristics of the nation and its politics--the state of the economy, the Obama presidency, and the demographics of the political parties--combined with the candidates' personalities and rhetoric to produce one of the most unexpected presidencies in history. Early on, the fundamental characteristics predicted an extremely close election. And even though Trump's many controversies helped Clinton maintain a comfortable lead for most of the campaign, the prediction of a close election became reality when Americans cast their votes.Identity Crisis reveals how Trump's victory was foreshadowed by changes in the Democratic and Republican coalitions that were driven by people's racial and ethnic identities. The campaign then reinforced and exacerbated those cleavages as it focused on issues related to race, immigration, and religion. The result was an epic battle not just for the White House but about what America is and should be.

What an intensely divisive election means for American politicsThe year 2020 was a tumultuous time in American politics. It brought a global pandemic, protests for racial justice, and a razor-thin presidential election outcome. It culminated in an attack on the U.S. Capitol that attempted to deny Joe Biden’s victory. The Bitter End explores the long-term trends and short-term shocks that shaped this dramatic year and what these changes could mean for the future.John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch, and Lynn Vavreck demonstrate that Trump’s presidency intensified the partisan politics of the previous decades and the identity politics of the 2016 election. Presidential elections have become calcified, with less chance of big swings in either party’s favor. Republicans remained loyal to Trump and kept the election close, despite Trump’s many scandals, a recession, and the pandemic. But in a narrowly divided electorate even small changes can have big consequences. The pandemic was a case in when Trump pushed to reopen the country even as infections mounted, support for Biden increased. The authors explain that, paradoxically, even as Biden’s win came at a time of heightened party loyalty, there remained room for shifts that shaped the election’s outcome. Ultimately, the events of 2020 showed that instead of the country coming together to face national challenges―the pandemic, George Floyd’s murder, and the Capitol riot―these challenges only reinforced divisions.Expertly chronicling the tensions of an election that came to an explosive finish, The Bitter End presents a detailed account of a year of crises and the dangerous direction in which the country is headed.

A contemporary and comprehensive approach to campaigns and elections.

"High Rollers" is the fourth and final free eBook preview chapter from John Sides and Lynn Vavreck's groundbreaking Fall 2013 book, The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election.Picking up where the third chapter, "All In," left off, "High Rollers" continues the dramatic story of the 2012 campaign into the summer. As Barack Obama and Mitt Romney began to face off directly, the contest was now down to two well financed and seasoned campaigners--"high rollers" playing the game of presidential politics at the highest level and putting everything on the table. With the race close in the polls, Obama and Romney began to place big and sometimes risky bets to change the dynamics of the race and establish a substantial lead. In combative ads and speeches, Obama tried to depict Romney as a rich, out-of-touch, and insensitive businessman. Romney selected Paul Ryan as his running mate, potentially signaling an unexpected shift in message from Obama's handling of the economy to a debate about the size of government and the national debt. But despite such high-stakes bets, the candidates were so equally matched that they largely played to a draw over the summer, and there was no net change in the polls between the beginning of May and the end of August. As Sides and Vavreck tell the story of the summer, they explain why such stability is actually typical of the competitive environment of presidential campaigns.The Gamble, which is scheduled to be published as a complete print and eBook in October 2013, tells the story of the election--with a big difference. Using an unusual "moneyball" approach, Sides and Vavreck look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that often pass for election analysis. Instead, they draw on extensive quantitative data about the economy, public opinion, news coverage, and political advertising to separate what actually made a difference in the contest--and what was just hype. Combining this data with the best social science research and colorful on-the-ground reporting, they look at the interplay between the candidates' strategic choices--the ads, speeches, rallies, and debates--and the chance circumstances of the election, especially the economy. The most accurate and precise account of the election yet written, and the only book of its kind, The Gamble is a must-read for political junkies, analysts, journalists, consultants, and academics.To find out more, download this chapter and begin reading the authors' special introduction to this and the other free chapters.

This is the first of a series of free eBook preview chapters—scheduled to be released between August and December 2012—from a groundbreaking book in progress about the 2012 U.S. presidential election. What are the odds that Barack Obama will be reelected in November, despite a weak economy? Many answers to this question are backed by little more than speculation and spin. But what does current and historical data—and political science—suggest? In this chapter, political analysts John Sides and Lynn Vavreck show that Obama is surprisingly popular given the state of the economy, and they offer several explanations—including Obama’s likability and the fact that more people blame George W. Bush for the country’s economic problems than blame Obama. But Sides and Vavreck also show that the mixed economic picture and the events of Obama’s first term make it likely that the election will be close. These are just some of the points that Sides and Vavreck make in this incisive chapter as they gauge the most important factors in the political and economic landscape going into the election campaign—and what they portend for Obama’s (and Mitt Romney’s) chances. This book represents an unprecedented effort to use a “Moneyball” approach to tell the story of what promises to be a dramatic election campaign, drawing on large quantities of data about the economy, public opinion, news coverage, and political advertising to determine the factors that really make a difference. At the same time, Sides and Vavreck will be visiting the campaign trail to find out what matters most to both of the campaigns and to voters. The result promises to be the only book about the election that combines on-the-ground reporting, social science, and quantitative data in order to look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that too often pass for analysis of presidential elections. To find out more, download this chapter and begin reading the authors’ special introduction to this and the other free chapters that will follow as the election campaign unfolds.The Gamble is scheduled to be published as a complete print and eBook in September 2013.

"Random, or Romney?" is the second of a series of free eBook preview chapters from John Sides and Lynn Vavreck's groundbreaking Fall 2013 book, The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election. These eBook chapters are scheduled to be released between August and December 2012. Picking up where the first chapter, "The Hand You're Dealt," left off, "Random, or Romney?" provides incisive analysis of the Republican primary season up to the Iowa caucuses. During the fall of 2011 and early last winter, it seemed as if Republicans wanted to nominate anyone but Mitt Romney. One after another, Romney challengers shot to the lead only to collapse under the scrutiny of the media and voters. Sides and Vavreck argue that the rise and fall of other candidates was due less to any significant opposition to Romney than it was to the media hunt for an exciting story. Looking at Romney's early endorsements, fundraising, organization, and relatively steady position in the polls, including significant support among conservatives who had been expected to oppose him, the authors show why a contest between Romney and Barack Obama was inevitable as early as the beginning of the year. This book represents an unprecedented effort to use a "Moneyball" approach to tell the story of what promises to be a dramatic election campaign, drawing on large quantities of data about the economy, public opinion, news coverage, and political advertising to determine the factors that really make a difference. At the same time, Sides and Vavreck will be visiting the campaign trail to find out what matters most to both of the campaigns and to voters. The result promises to be the only book about the election that combines on-the-ground reporting, social science, and quantitative data in order to look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that too often pass for analysis of presidential elections. To find out more, download this chapter and begin reading the authors' special introduction to this and the other free chapters that will follow as the election campaign unfolds. The Gamble is scheduled to be published as a complete print and eBook in September 2013.

"All In" is the third free eBook preview chapter from John Sides and Lynn Vavreck's groundbreaking Fall 2013 book, The Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election.Picking up where the second chapter, "Random, or Romney?" left off, "All In" continues the story of the 2012 Republican primary, up to the point when Mitt Romney clinched the nomination. Sides and Vavreck tell the gripping story of how Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich seemed to threaten Romney's chances, and why both challengers fizzled out. The authors examine elite endorsements, voters' attitudes, media coverage, advertising, fundraising, and the efforts of each campaign. In the end, they argue, Romney benefited from the sequence of state primaries and caucuses, while Santorum and Gingrich could not compete with him week in and week out. Romney had not only superior fundraising and organization but also broader support within the party, among leaders and voters alike. Despite the persistent claim that the party wanted "Anybody but Romney," by the spring of 2012, the party had made its it was "all in" on Romney.This book represents an unprecedented effort to use a "Moneyball" approach to tell the dramatic story of the election campaign, drawing on large quantities of data about the economy, public opinion, news coverage, and political advertising to determine the factors that really made a difference. At the same time, Sides and Vavreck visited the campaign trail to find out what mattered most to the campaigns and voters. The result promises to be the only book about the election that combines on-the-ground reporting, social science, and quantitative data in order to look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that too often pass for analysis of presidential elections.To find out more, download this chapter and begin reading the authors' special introduction to this and the other free chapters. The fourth and final eBook preview chapter will be released in spring 2013.The Gamble is scheduled to be published as a complete print and eBook in September 2013.

The #1 book examines contemporary campaigns and elections―now updated through 2022. Thoroughly revised and updated through the 2022 elections, the Fourth Edition of Campaigns and Elections uses a consistent framework to reveal the strategies and choices that face candidates and other practitioners in the American political system. The authors help students answer the many questions they have about campaigns while spotlighting contemporary political science research in the process.

The #1 book examines contemporary campaigns and elections—now updated through 2022.Thoroughly revised and updated through the 2022 elections, the Fourth Edition of Campaigns and Elections uses a consistent framework to reveal the strategies and choices that face candidates and other practitioners in the American political system. The authors help students answer the many questions they have about campaigns while spotlighting contemporary political science research in the process. This purchase offers access to the digital ebook only.

The #1 book, thoroughly revised to reflect how elections work today.Updated through the pivotal 2024 elections, the Fifth Edition of Campaigns and Elections uses a consistent framework to help students understand the strategies and choices that face candidates and other campaign professionals in the American political system. The authors incorporate illuminating contemporary research and data, encouraging students to think critically about the American electoral system?and make sense of how campaigns work.