Federal Reserve Districts

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace during the reporting period of September through early October. Eight Districts reported similar growth rates in economic activity as during the previous reporting period, while growth slowed some in the Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts. Contacts across Districts generally remained cautiously optimistic in their outlook for future economic activity, although many also noted an increase in uncertainty due largely to the federal government shutdown and debt ceiling debate.Consumer spending continued to increase and activity in the travel and tourism sector expanded in most Districts. Business spending and payrolls grew in many Districts. Demand for nonfinancial services rose, and manufacturing activity also expanded modestly. Residential construction continued to increase at a moderate pace. By comparison, nonresidential construction again expanded at a slower rate. Residential and commercial real estate activity varied across Districts, but largely continued to improve. Financial conditions were little changed on balance, with lending activity remaining modest in most Districts. There were mixed reports on agriculture, with excess precipitation and drought both impacting the sector. Energy and mining activity expanded or maintained high levels, with the exception of the coal industry in the eastern half of the nation. Price and wage pressures were again limited. Consumer Spending and TourismConsumer spending grew modestly in most Districts. Auto sales continued to be strong, particularly in the New York District where they were said to be increasingly robust. In contrast, Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas indicated slower growth in auto sales in September. Growth in retail sales was steady in most of the Districts, but picked up some in Cleveland and Richmond and slowed in Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas. Contacts in Chicago and Atlanta noted that back-to-school spending was lower than a year ago. However, retailers generally remained optimistic about the holiday shopping season, with contacts in Philadelphia and Chicago expecting this year’s holiday sales to be about equal to last year’s despite the traditional holiday period being six days shorter this year. In addition, Dallas noted strength in retail imports in advance of the holiday season, with growth stronger than a year ago.Activity in the travel and tourism sector also expanded in most areas, with the reports from the Atlanta, Boston, and New York Districts being particularly upbeat. Dallas indicated that airline passenger demand slowed seasonally, but was slightly stronger than year-ago levels. Tourism contacts in the Boston District were concerned about the potential impact of a protracted federal government shutdown; and Richmond noted that the shutdown had led to the closing of some tourist attractions, although hotel contacts indicated that these closures did not result in guest cancellations. In addition, Kansas City noted lower tourism activity due in part to the severe effects of recent flooding in Colorado. Business Spending and Hiring.