
by Erik Brynjolfsson
Rating: 3.9 ⭐
• 5 recommendations ❤️
In recent years, Google’s autonomous cars have logged thousands of miles on American highways and IBM’s Watson trounced the best human Jeopardy! players. Digital technologies—with hardware, software, and networks at their core—will in the near future diagnose diseases more accurately than doctors can, apply enormous data sets to transform retailing, and accomplish many tasks once considered uniquely human.In The Second Machine Age MIT’s Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee—two thinkers at the forefront of their field—reveal the forces driving the reinvention of our lives and our economy. As the full impact of digital technologies is felt, we will realize immense bounty in the form of dazzling personal technology, advanced infrastructure, and near-boundless access to the cultural items that enrich our lives.Amid this bounty will also be wrenching change. Professions of all kinds—from lawyers to truck drivers—will be forever upended. Companies will be forced to transform or die. Recent economic indicators reflect this shift: fewer people are working, and wages are falling even as productivity and profits soar.Drawing on years of research and up-to-the-minute trends, Brynjolfsson and McAfee identify the best strategies for survival and offer a new path to prosperity. These include revamping education so that it prepares people for the next economy instead of the last one, designing new collaborations that pair brute processing power with human ingenuity, and embracing policies that make sense in a radically transformed landscape.A fundamentally optimistic book, The Second Machine Age alters how we think about issues of technological, societal, and economic progress.
Why has median income stopped rising in the US?Why is the share of population that is working falling so rapidly?Why are our economy and society are becoming more unequal?A popular explanation right now is that the root cause underlying these symptoms is technological stagnation-- a slowdown in the kinds of ideas and inventions that bring progress and prosperity.In Race Against the Machine, MIT's Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee present a very different explanation. Drawing on research by their team at the Center for Digital Business, they show that there's been no stagnation in technology -- in fact, the digital revolution is accelerating. Recent advances are the stuff of science fiction: computers now drive cars in traffic, translate between human languages effectively, and beat the best human Jeopardy! players.As these examples show, digital technologies are rapidly encroaching on skills that used to belong to humans alone. This phenomenon is both broad and deep, and has profound economic implications. Many of these implications are positive; digital innovation increases productivity, reduces prices (sometimes to zero), and grows the overall economic pie.But digital innovation has also changed how the economic pie is distributed, and here the news is not good for the median worker. As technology races ahead, it can leave many people behind. Workers whose skills have been mastered by computers have less to offer the job market, and see their wages and prospects shrink. Entrepreneurial business models, new organizational structures and different institutions are needed to ensure that the average worker is not left behind by cutting-edge machines.In Race Against the Machine Brynjolfsson and McAfee bring together a range of statistics, examples, and arguments to show that technological progress is accelerating, and that this trend has deep consequences for skills, wages, and jobs. The book makes the case that employment prospects are grim for many today not because there's been technology has stagnated, but instead because we humans and our organizations aren't keeping up.
Uç bölümden oluşan kitap İkinci Makine Çağı’nın temel özelliklerine; yaşanacak ilerlemenin neticesinde ortaya çıkacak bolluk ve açılmanın yanı sıra yeni çağda yapılması gereken müdahalelere değiniyor. İki ünlü bilim adamının kaleme aldığı bu ilgi çekici kitap teknoloji, toplum ve ekonomi alanlarındaki kalkınma sürecine dair düşüncelerimizi değiştireceğe benziyor. Nobel ödüllü iktisatçı Michael Spence’nin de dediği gibi: “Makinelerle nasıl yarışacağını öğrenmek isteyenler için bu kitap son derece isabetli bir başlangıç olacak.”YENİ MAKİNE ÇAĞI NASIL BİR KIRILMA YARATACAK?İnsanlık, ikinci makine çağına giriyor. Buhar gücüyle çalışan makineler ve onu model alan diğer yenilikler nasıl ki kas gücünün yerini aldıysa, bilgisayarlar ve diğer dijital yenilikler de beyin gücünün yani dünyayı anlama ve şekillendirme becerimizin yerini alıyor. Geçmişte bizi sınırlayan engelleri aşmamızı, yeni bir coğrafyaya ayak basmamızı sağlıyorlar. Bu geçişin tam olarak nasıl gerçekleşeceğini henüz kimse bilmiyor. Ancak yeni makine çağının, insanlığın gelişim çizgisinde Watt’ın buhar makinesi kadar şiddetli bir kırılma yaratıp yaratmayacağı sorusu çok büyük önem taşıyor. Ufukta beliren yeni dünyada hayatta kalmanın, refah ve başarıya ulaşmanın en iyi yolları ise yıllar süren araştırmaların ve güncel gelişmelerin ışığında ele alınıyor. Erik Brynjolfsson ve Andrew McAfee’nin yeni kitabı “İkinci Makine Çağı”nda Hollandalı satranç ustası Jan Hein Donner’e, IBM’in Deep Blue’su gibi bir bilgisayarla karşılaşsa nasıl hazırlanacağı soruluyor. Donner bu soruya, “Yanımda bir çekiç getirirdim!” şeklinde yanıt veriyor. Yazılım ve otomasyondaki bazı yeni gelişmeleri kırıp dökme hayali kuran tek kişi Donner değil. Çünkü kendi kendine giden arabaları, robotlu fabrikaları ve rezervasyon yapan yapay zekaları mümkün kılan bu gelişmeler yalnızca mavi yaka işleri hızla eskitmekle kalmıyor, artık beyaz yakalıların, hatta büyük satranç ustalarının hünerlerini bile geride bırakıyor. Son 10 yılda çok büyük bir olay oldu. Bu her işte, fabrikada ve okulda hissediliyor. Ortalama kavramanın kalmadığı; işverenlerin artık ortalamanın üstündeki yazılımlara, otomasyona ve ucuz dehaya ulaşabildiği bir dünya söz konusu. İkisi de Massachusetts Teknoloji Enstitüsü’nden olan Brynjolfsson ve McAfee’yse daha ayrıntılı bir açıklama getiriyor ve İkinci Makine Çağı’na girdiğimizi söylüyor. Onlara göre Birinci Makine Çağı, 1700’lerin sonunda buharlı motorlarla doğan Sanayi Devrimi’ydi. McAfee, bu dönem için, “Her şey insan kasını ilerleten güç sistemleriyle ilgiliydi” diyor. “O çağda birbirini izleyen her icat daha fazla güç üretiyordu. Ama onlarla ilgili kararları hep insanlar alıyordu”. Yani emek ve makineler birbirini tamamlıyordu. İkinci Makine Çağı’ndaysa, diyor Brynjolfsson, “Bilişsel işlerin, hangi gücün ne için kullanılacağını belirleyen kontrol sistemlerinin de çoğunu otomasyona bağlıyoruz. Bugün birçok yapay zekalı makine insanlardan daha iyi kararlar verebiliyor”. Yani yazılım güdümlü makineler insanları tamamlamaktan çok onların yerini almaya başlayabilir. Yazarlar bunu “Üstel, dijital ve tümleşik” olarak tanımladıkları teknolojik gelişmelere bağlıyor. “Üstele” örnek olarak, satrancı icat eden adama hayran kalıp ona istediği ödülü teklif eden kralın hikayesini anıyorlar. Mucit, ailesini doyurmak için pirinç dilemiş. Kraldan sadece satranç tahtasının ilk karesine bir pirinç tanesi, sonra her müteakip kareye bir öncekinin iki katı pirinç konmasını istemiş. Kral kabul etmiş, ama sonra anlamış ki bir şeyi 63 kere ikiye katlayınca inanılmaz rakamlar ortaya çıkıyor (satranç tahtasının ikinci yarısı sona erdiğinde 18 kentilyon pirinç tanesi). Yazarlar, satranç tahtasının ikinci yarısını, dijital hesap gücünün her iki yılda bir ikiye katlanmasıyla ilgili Moore Yasası’na benzetiyor. Performansı 70 yılda bir ikiye katlanan fiziksel nitelikli buhar gücünden farklı olarak bilgisayarlar, Brynjolfsson’un sözleriyle, “Her şeyden daha hızlı gelişiyor”. Dijital satranç tahtasının ikinci yarısında olduğumuz içindir ki, kendi kendine giden arabalar, esnek fabrika robotları, bir nesil öncesinin süper bilgisayarlarına eşdeğer akıllı telefonlar görüyoruz. Buna bir de internetin yayılmasını ekleyin; çok geçmeden dünyada herkesin akıllı bir telefonu olacak ve her yazar kasa, uçak motoru, öğrenci tableti ve termostat, internet üstünden dijital veri yayınlayacak. Bütün bu veriler, kalıpları anında fark edip çözümleyebileceğimiz, işleyen kalıpları anında küresel ölçekte yineleyebileceğimiz ve işlemeyenleri de anında düzeltebileceğimiz anlamına geliyor (İster kesirli sayıların öğretimiyle, ister 9 bin metrede bir uçak motorunun daha iyi çalışmasıyla ilgili olsun). Yazarlar, gelişmenin hız ve ivmesinin müthiş artacağını savunuyor. Tümleşik ilerlemeden kastedilen, bir Google haritasını Waze gibi bir akıllı telefon uygulamasıyla (telefonlarını arabada taşıyan sürücüler rotaları üstündeki trafik durumunu otomatik olarak iletirler) kombine edebileceğiniz ve ikisini de, trafik şartları...
Internationale bestseller over de impact van technologie op ons Google Glasses, zelfrijdende auto's, computers die het menselijk brein vervangen... De digitalisering heeft ons leven drastisch veranderd, en we staan nog maar aan het begin van deze revolutie. 'Vanaf nu wordt de verandering pas echt duizelingwekkend', aldus Erik Brynjolfsson en Andrew McAfee, beiden verbonden aan het prestigieuze MIT. 'En het is aanpassen of verliezen.' Miljoenen mensen dreigen hun baan te verliezen, precaire machtsevenwichten verschuiven en de sociale ongelijkheid groeit. Dit tweede tijdperk der machines kan echter ook zorgen voor meer welvaart. Maar dan moeten we nu de juiste keuzes maken.
by Erik Brynjolfsson
Rating: 3.6 ⭐
Two experts on the information economy explore the true economic value of technology and innovation. A wave of business innovation is driving the productivity resurgence in the U.S. economy. In Wired for Innovation , Erik Brynjolfsson and Adam Saunders describe how information technology directly or indirectly created this productivity explosion, reversing decades of slow growth. They argue that the companies with the highest level of returns to their technology investment are doing more than just buying technology; they are inventing new forms of organizational capital to become digital organizations. These innovations include a cluster of organizational and business-process changes, including broader sharing of information, decentralized decision-making, linking pay and promotions to performance, pruning of non-core products and processes, and greater investments in training and education. Innovation continues through booms and busts. This book provides an essential guide for policy makers and economists who need to understand how information technology is transforming the economy and how it will create value in the coming decade.
by Erik Brynjolfsson
Rating: 4.0 ⭐
Rapid advances in AI are reshaping how we govern ourselves. Inspired by The Federalist Papers, which promoted the idea of a nation designed by intent rather than by accident, The Digitalist Papers series delves into the critical intersection of AI and democracy.This volume brings together scholars and industry leaders to explore the opportunities and challenges AI presents, offering a range of strategies for a democratic future. Instead of a one-size-fits-all solution, it champions a pluralistic, interdisciplinary approach to navigating this transformative era.Authors include Greg Beato, Laura Bisesto, John Cochrane, Sarah Friar, Mona Hamdy, Reid Hoffman, Saffron Huang, Lawrence Lessig, James Manyika, Johnnie Moore, Jennifer Pahlka, Alex Pentland, Nathaniel Persily, Eric Schmidt, Divya Siddarth, Audrey Tang, Lily L. Tsai, Eugene Volokh, and E. Glen Weyl.
by Erik Brynjolfsson
Rating: 4.3 ⭐
This research was sponsored by the MIT Center for Coordination Science, the MIT International Financial Services Research Center, and the Sloan Foundation. The paper is a revised and extended version of an article which originally appeared in the Communications of the ACM, in December, 1993, and also reflects subsequent research in this area.During the 1980s, the relationship between information technology (IT) and productivity became a source of debate: the astonishing improvements in computers’ underlying capabilities proved almost impossible to assess in terms of their effect on productivity. Fueled in part by the emergence of empirical research on IT productivity that generally did not identify significantproductivity improvements, the perception that IT failed to live up to its promise prevailed.Recent research is more encouraging, as new data are identified and more sophisticated methodologies are applied. Several researchers document IT’s positive effect on productivity performance. Additionally, others approach IT’s contribution from different perspectives, examining its effect on intermediate measures, on consumer surplus, and on economic growth.Consequently, our presumption of a “productivity paradox” has diminished considerably.However, a careful review indicates that unequivocal evidence still remains elusive, with new questions emerging even as old puzzles fade. This survey categorizes relevant studies into four groups, identifies remaining productivity puzzles, and reviews four possible explanations for them: mismeasurement, lags, redistribution and mismanagement. The paper concludes withrecommendations for investigating each of these explanations, including more careful applications of traditional methodologies, as well as employment of alternative, broader metricsof welfare to assess and enhance the benefits of IT.
by Erik Brynjolfsson
Rating: 3.7 ⭐
This is a reproduction of a book published before 1923. This book may have occasional imperfections such as missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. that were either part of the original artifact, or were introduced by the scanning process. We believe this work is culturally important, and despite the imperfections, have elected to bring it back into print as part of our continuing commitment to the preservation of printed works worldwide. We appreciate your understanding of the imperfections in the preservation process, and hope you enjoy this valuable book.
by Erik Brynjolfsson
Rating: 2.5 ⭐
Excerpt from Some Estimates of the Contribution of Information Technology to Consumer WelfareThe next section discusses the various approaches to estimating IT value with particular attention to the theory of consumer surplus which will be applied. Section three describes the features and limitations of data and the econometric methods used. The results are presented in section 4, including some sensitivity estimates. In section 5, we conclude with a summary and discussion of future directions for the work.About the PublisherForgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.comThis book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
by Erik Brynjolfsson
Rating: 3.3 ⭐
An important question that has been debated for almost a decade is whether computers contribute to productivity growth. Productivity isn't everything. However, as noted by the economist Paul Krugman, in the long run it is almost everything. Productivity growth determines our living standards and the wealth of nations. This is because the amount a nation can consume is ultimately closely tied to what it produces. By the same token, thesuccess of a business generally depends on its ability to deliver more real value for consumers without using more labor, capital or other inputs.
Excerpt from Does Information Technology Lead to Smaller Firms?2. Background and hypotheses Trends in the key variables Firm size Information technology Theoretical studies of IT and firm size.About the PublisherForgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.comThis book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
by Erik Brynjolfsson
Rating: 3.0 ⭐
by Erik Brynjolfsson
by Erik Brynjolfsson
L’uomo sta perdendo la gara con la tecnologia? La tecnologia e l’innovazione lo stanno impoverendo? L’innovazione sta distruggendo posti di lavoro invece di crearne? Perché la ripresa economica è senza lavoro? Come può succedere che dell’enorme valore creato dalla tecnologia non benefici l’intera società, ma solo una minoranza? Come può esserci un’accelerazione delle tecnologie mentre i redditi ristagnano? A queste domande, che sembrano dei paradossi, i due autori, professori del mit, cercano di rispondere in questo saggio che ha mosso un dibattito vastissimo anche in Italia.Lo sviluppo della tecnologia e dell’innovazione non va a beneficio di tutti, anzi accelera le criticità e le disuguaglianze della società. C’è una via d’uscita? Sì! Consiste nel lavorare con le macchine innovando le organizzazioni, investendo nel capitale umano attraverso la scuola e la formazione continua. Gli autori indicano diciannove aree d’intervento per battere le macchine.In questa seconda edizione è presente una sezione eXtra con due il primo si chiede se il pil riesca ancora a misurare l’andamento reale dell’economia e del benessere di un Paese; il secondo, di Giulio Sapelli, analizza le problematiche del capitalismo tecnologico in relazione al lavoro, ai lavoratori e ai sindacati.