Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Now featuring a new chapter on the rise of illiberalism worldwide.As featured in the viral video “Rules for Rulers,” which has been viewed over fifteen million times.Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith’s canonical book on political science turned conventional wisdom on its head. They started from a single leaders do whatever keeps them in power. They don’t care about the “national interest”—or even their subjects—unless they must.Newly updated to reflect the global rise of authoritarianism, this clever and accessible book illustrates how leaders amass and retain power. As Bueno de Mesquita and Smith show, democracy is essentially just a convenient fiction. Governments do not differ in kind, but only in the number of essential supporters or backs that need scratching. The size of this group determines almost everything about what leaders can get away with, and the quality of life or misery under them. And it is also the key to returning power to the people.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita can predict the future. He is a master of game theory, a rather fancy name for a simple idea: when people compete with each other they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory to foretell - and even engineer - political, financial, and personal events. In fact, Bueno de Mesquita's forecasts, for everyone from the CIA to major companies, have an astonishing ninety per cent success rate. In this startling and revelatory book, he describes his methods and allows us to play along.Bueno de Mesquita explores the origins of game theory as formulated by John Nash, the Nobel Prize winner who became the subject of the film "A Beautiful Mind." He has developed Nash's ideas to create a rigorous and pragmatic system of calculation that enables us to think strategically about what our opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to our every move.Bueno de Mesquita applies his methods to many of the most pressing issues of our day. He advises how best to contain the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea. He shows how the Israeli-Palestinian conflict might be resolved. He explains how corporate fraud can be anticipated and prevented. He addresses climate change and international terrorism: their likely evolution and our most effective response.But, as Bueno de Mesquita makes clear, game theory isn't just for saving the world. It can also help in your own life - to succeed in a legal dispute, to advance your career or that of a colleague, and even to buy a car at the lowest possible price.Shrewd, provocative and original, "Predictioneer" will change your understanding of the world - both now and in the future. If life's a game, then Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is the one essential member of your team.

In the tradition of Sapiens and Why Nations Fail, this book solves one of the great puzzles of history: why did the West become the most powerful civilization in the world?Western Exceptionalism--the idea that European civilizations are freer, wealthier, and less violent--lies beneath a vast array of world events and political activities, past and present. It has been a source of peace and prosperity in some societies, and ethnic cleansing and havoc in others. It has also been the subject of more than a hundred years of academic debate.The fundamental question -- why are Western societies better off? -- has given rise to many political theories, including some of the most dangerous and racist ones in the world. In this book, political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita lays waste to these treacherous ideas, and explains the consolidation of power in the West through a single, little noticed event: the 1122 Concordat of Worms (pronounced "Verms.")Bueno de Mesquita makes a deeply researched and very persuasive case that the Concordat changed the terms of competition between churches and nation-states, incentivizing economic growth and benefiting citizens over kings and popes. In the centuries since, those countries that have had similar arrangements have been consistently better off than those that did not.This is a remarkable work of scholarship -- insightful, original, and essential all at once. The Invention of Power asks who we are and where we came from, and answers these questions resoundingly.

The authors of this ambitious book address a fundamental political question: why are leaders who produce peace and prosperity turned out of office while those who preside over corruption, war, and misery endure? Considering this political puzzle, they also answer the related economic question of why some countries experience successful economic development and others do not. The authors construct a provocative theory on the selection of leaders and present specific formal models from which their central claims can be deduced. They show how political leaders allocate resources and how institutions for selecting leaders create incentives for leaders to pursue good and bad public policy. They also extend the model to explain the consequences of war on political survival. Throughout the book, they provide illustrations from history, ranging from ancient Sparta to Vichy France, and test the model against statistics gathered from cross-national data. The authors explain the political intuition underlying their theory in nontechnical language, reserving formal proofs for chapter appendixes. They conclude by presenting policy prescriptions based on what has been demonstrated theoretically and empirically.

Two eminent political scientists show that America's great conflicts, from the Revolutionary War to the War on Terror, were fought not for ideals, or even geopolitical strategy, but for the individual gain of the presidents who waged them. It's striking how many of the presidents Americans venerate-Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and John F. Kennedy, to name a few-oversaw some of the republic's bloodiest years. Perhaps they were driven by the needs of the American people and the nation. Or maybe they were just looking out for themselves. This revealing and entertaining book puts some of America's greatest leaders under the microscope, showing how their calls for war, usually remembered as brave and noble, were in fact selfish and convenient. In each case, our presidents chose personal gain over national interest while loudly evoking justice and freedom. The result is an eye-opening retelling of American history, and a call for reforms that may make the future better. Bueno de Mesquita and Smith demonstrate in compelling fashion that wars, even bloody and noble ones, are not primarily motivated by democracy or freedom or the sanctity of human life. When our presidents risk the lives of brave young soldiers, they do it for themselves.

Click here to read the introduction.Click here to watch Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's TED Talk about the future of Iran's leadership and nuclear program!A little revolution now and again is a good thing. The scientific approach to international relations has transformed the field. And now, thanks to a revolutionary revision, Principles of International Politics offers a crisp and clear introduction to international relations from the strategic point of view.Responding to user feedback and classroom testing, Principles has been completely recast so that the book is focused squarely on the central insights of the strategic perspective. Honing in on two key ideas--winning coalitions and selectorate size--the book delivers the fundamental lessons of the theory more easily than ever, giving students even better access to the most powerful way of thinking about IR today.Not only will students find the text easier to follow, they'll also find the book shorter--almost half the length of the previous edition. Streamlining places the take-away points front and center, and the basic tools of the model are delivered in clear step-by-step language, allowing beginning students to grasp the theory's powerful insights.What hasn't changed: Bueno de Mesquita's commitment to covering the fundamentals of IR. You'll find a full examination of security problems, with special attention to theories of war, an exploration of the democratic peace, the problems of terrorism, military intervention, the role of foreign aid, democratization, international political economy, globalization, international organizations, alliances, and international law.Helpful pedagogical features allow students to master the principles, including:chapter-opener overviews,bolded key terms,"Try This" feature boxes,a full glossary, andappendixes (a survey of world history and a primer on the scientific method).

“This illuminating work is a masterful study that delves into the causes of war using a wholly new approach. Utilizing the assumptions of rational behavior, de Mesquita focuses on the perspective of decision making as an attempt to understand the phenomenon of war. . . . The book is highly stimulating . . . provocative, and certainly quite timely. . . a superb example of methodological exposition . . . Likely to appeal to the serious scholar of social sciences in general and of international relations in particular.”―Ghulam M. Haniff, The annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science“A major work. It is certain to inspire theoretical elaboration and refinement, additional testing of its propositions, and fruitful application. Moreover, it is destined to be considered a classic contribution to the scientific understanding of interstate conflict and war.”―Frank C. Zagare, American Political Science Review“Rigorous and insightful analysis. . . . An important contribution to our theories of choice, relevant to all students of politics. The study is an exemplar in its development of systemic mini-theory accomplished by empirical tests of its propositions, completely worthy of emulation by those of us who profess to be political scientists , young and old.”―Harold Guetzkow“A tour de force of theory, testing, and illustration.”―Brice M. Russett

In this landmark work, two leading theorists of international relations analyze the strategies designed to avoid international conflict. Using a combination of game theory, statistical analysis, and detailed case histories, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman evaluate the conditions that promote negotiation, the status quo, capitulation, acquiescence, and war.The authors assess two competing theories on the role that domestic politics plays in foreign policy one states that national decision makers are constrained only by the exigencies of the international system, and the other views leaders as additionally constrained by domestic political considerations. Finding the second theory to be more consistent with historical events, they use it to examine enduring puzzles such as why democracies do not appear to fight one another, whether balance of power or power preponderance promotes peaceful resolution of disputes, and what conditions are necessary and sufficient for nations to cooperate with one another. They conclude by speculating about the implications of their theory for foreign policy strategies in the post-Cold War world.

To predict likely policy developments around the world over the next thirty years, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses game theoretic models as described in Predicting Politics. The tools used in this book have found wide application in business and in the development of significant American foreign policy initiatives over the years. The author uses data from 1948 to show the ability of models to predict the end of the Cold War. He then turns to data from 1980 for about one hundred countries and simulates future states of the world, especially with regard to further democratization. In the process he shows strong evidence that the burst of democratization that occurred at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s was predictable based on replicable data known in 1980. While delving into rather gloomy predictions about likely developments in Russia and China's domestic affairs, he offers a novel explanation for the failure of Russia to attract more investment and to achieve the higher growth rates commonly associated with democratic government. Although Russia is certainly more democratic in an absolute sense today than it was in 1980, it has fallen farther behind the rest of the world in terms of democratization and so lacks the comparative advantages of property rights, rule of law, and transparent governance that are essential for attracting investment. Bueno de Mesquita shows how policy situations and game theoretical analyses can explain the past, illuminate the present, and forecast future events. At the same time he provides the tools necessary for others to create their own rigorous estimates of future foreign policies.

What happened to Ebenezer Scrooge after the night he was visited by the three spirits?When we left Ebenezer Scrooge at the end of A Christmas Carol, he appeared to be a man transformed. But did he sincerely repent and earn admission to heaven? The Trial of Ebenezer Scrooge, written in Dickensian style and with tongue firmly lodged in cheek, follows Scrooge through the Court of Heavenly Justice, where his soul’s fate is to be determined. In this courtroom drama, using frequent flashbacks, the author uncovers startling evidence, much of it directly from Dickens’s classic, that reveals Scrooge to have lived a saintly life before being confronted by three Christmas ghosts. Evidence mounts that Mr. Scrooge struck a Faustian bargain with the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come, a deal to extend his own mortality in exchange for yielding his soul as a tool for the forces of darkness to infiltrate heaven. Readers will enjoy the remaking of some of Dickens’s best-known characters. Tiny Tim emerges as a villain, while little Eppie, borrowed from George Eliot’s Silas Marner, is Scrooge’s protector and source of salvation. This new novel provides the much-needed redemption of Ebenezer Scrooge’s reputation and offers a welcome departure from the standard saccharine fare at Christmastime. Dickens buffs will have a merry time trying to find where Dickens’s voice ends and the author’s begins. All readers will puzzle over how we could have so misjudged Ebenezer Scrooge, or whether we judged Scrooge aright from the start.

Addresses the scope and durability of China's future policies toward Hong Kong

This book, originally published in 1975, presents a theory of behaviour in coalitions and presents an application of the theory to Indian political party coalitions. The major findings of the study are (a) the size of political parties is unimportant when important benefits are distributed in coalitions; (b) behaviour that combines a moderate degree of cooperation and competition with one's allies leads to a much greater political success than either highly competitive or highly cooperative behaviour; and (c) political parties with leaders whose personalities can be characterised as having a high need to achieve enjoy much greater electoral success than parties whose leaders are relatively low in need for achievement. The book is important because the theory is able to explain long term and short term consequences of coalitions; it presents a careful analysis of political party behaviour in India and it combines elements of positive political theory, empirical political science and psychology in explaining coalition behaviour.

Lucid and compelling, this is an essential guide to the turbulent future of Hong Kong. The authors begin with a concise historical overview, tracing how Hong Kong with its unique geographical setting, "textbook" freemarket economy, and industrious population, developed into one of the world′s richest territories. Based on their own expertise in policy choices and a collection of data from a wide range of expert observers, the authors applied a scientific model of decision making to Hong Kong′s unknown future.

This workbook has been redesigned and refocused to help students understand the game theoretic and other technical concepts that structure the strategic perspective. New hands-on and class-tested exercises are included so that even the most novice students will hone their problem-solving skills.

Principles of International Politics - People's Powers, Preferences, & Perceptions (3rd, 06) by B, Bueno De Mesquita [Paperback (2005)]

The scientific approach to international relations has transformed the field. This title offers a clear introduction to international relations from the strategic point of view.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita là bậc thầy về lý thuyết trò chơi – cái tên hoa mỹ của một ý tưởng hết sức đơn giản: Con người cạnh tranh với nhau, và họ luôn làm những gì họ tin là tốt nhất cho lợi ích bản thân. Bueno de Mesquita sử dụng lý thuyết trò chơi và khả năng nhìn thấu hành vi con người của nó để dự đoán, và thậm chí định trước các sự kiện chính trị, tài chính hay những gì xảy ra trong cuộc sống hàng ngày. Dự báo của ông đã được mọi giới sử dụng, từ CIA đến các công ty lớn, và có tỷ lệ chính xác đáng ngạc nhiên, lên đến 90%. Trong cuốn sách gây kinh ngạc và tiết lộ nhiều điều này, ông chia sẻ với chúng ta phương pháp đáng sửng sốt của mình và cho phép bạn cùng tham gia dự đoán một loạt các tình huống đàm phán và tranh chấp có mức độ ảnh hưởng cao.Sử dụng quan điểm gốc của lý thuyết trò chơi cộng với những phát triển của John Nash, nhà khoa học đã được trao giải Nobel và có lẽ được biết đến nhiều nhất qua bộ phim Một tâm hồn đẹp, Bueno de Mesquita mô tả chi tiết hệ thống tính toán tỉnh táo lạnh lùng và gây nhiều tranh cãi mà ông đã xây dựng nên. Hệ thống này cho phép chúng ta suy nghĩ một cách có chiến lược về mong muốn của đối phương, họ muốn điều đó đến mức nào, và họ sẽ phản ứng ra sao trước mỗi nước cờ. Từ đây, Bueno de Mesquita chơi trò dự đoán những sự kiện như đàm phán giải trừ quân bị ở Bắc Triều Tiên, quá trình tiến bộ và tan vỡ của nền hòa bình Trung Đông cùng với nhiều tình huống khác, trong đó ông đã dự đoán chính xác khách hàng nào của công ty kiểm toán Arthur Andersen có nhiều khả năng gian lận nhất (gợi ý: tên công ty này bắt đầu bằng chữ E). Và khi nhìn về tương lai, Bueno de Mesquita cũng cho thấy lý thuyết trò chơi có thể mang lại chiến lược ngăn cản thành công sự nóng lên của trái đất (thay vì phải phụ thuộc vào những quy định không khả thi, buộc các quốc gia phải cạnh tranh về mặt công nghệ) và chống khủng bố (tính được chính xác Mỹ cần viện trợ bao nhiêu để Pakistan chống lại Taliban).Nhưng như Bueno de Mesquita cũng chỉ rõ, lý thuyết trò chơi không chỉ phục vụ cho sự nghiệp giải cứu thế giới, nó còn có thể giúp bạn ngay trong cuộc sống hàng ngày, bất kể là một vụ kiện (các luật sư thường tranh luận quá nhiều về tính chất vụ việc và đặt quá ít câu hỏi về động cơ của đối phương), một cuộc bỏ phiếu bầu CEO công ty (thay đổi cách thức bỏ phiếu sao cho có lợi hơn cho ứng viên bạn ưa thích), hoặc thậm chí khi đi mua ô tô (bắt đầu với việc biết chính xác bạn muốn gì, gọi cho từng cửa hàng trong bán kính 80km và chỉ thương lượng qua điện thoại).Tràn đầy kiến thức, kích thích người đọc và hiệu quả đến bất ngờ, Trò chơi của nhà tiên tri sẽ khiến bạn thay đổi cách hiểu thế giới và kiểm soát được tương lai của mình. Cuộc sống là một cuộc chơi, và cách bạn tham gia cuộc chơi đó sẽ quyết định bạn thắng hay thua.