Annie Duke

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker.What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut.What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive?Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide , bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values.Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.

From the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets comes a toolkit for mastering the skill of quitting to achieve greater successBusiness leaders, with millions of dollars down the drain, struggle to abandon a new app or product that just isn't working. Governments, caught in a hopeless conflict, believe that the next tactic will finally be the one that wins the war. And in our own lives, we persist in relationships or careers that no longer serve us. Why? According to Annie Duke, in the face of tough decisions, we're terrible quitters. And that is significantly holding us back.In Quit, Duke teaches you how to get good at quitting. Drawing on stories from elite athletes like Mount Everest climbers, founders of leading companies like Stewart Butterfield, the CEO of Slack, and top entertainers like Dave Chappelle, Duke explains why quitting is integral to success, as well as strategies for determining when to hold em, and when to fold em, that will save you time, energy, and money. You'll learn: How the paradox of quitting influences decision making: If you quit on time, you will feel you quit earlyWhat forces work against good quitting behavior, such as escalation commitment, desire for certainty, and status quo biasHow to think in expected value in order to make better decisions, as well as other best practices, such as increasing flexibility in goal-setting, establishing "quitting contracts," anticipating optionality, and conducting premortems and backcastsWhether you're facing a make-or-break business decision or life-altering personal choice, mastering the skill of quitting will help you make the best next move.

Ask the great poker players how they'd play a hand and the answer is always, "It depends." That answer can be infuriating. But guess what? It really does depend. The key to becoming a great poker player is in knowing exactly what it depends on. At last there's a book that gives you that answer.Poker is a game of so many table position, flop texture, the number of players in a hand, the personalities of your opponents, and so much more. Decide to Play Great Poker teaches you how to identify and analyze those variables, interchange them within basic game-situation templates, and become knowledgeable, comfortable, and confident in any poker situation. Instead of just dictating a bunch of rules that work only some of the time, this book teaches you to become a great poker thinker and strategist, so that you can expertly navigate any poker challenge that you encounter.Most players think that the goal of poker is to make money. They're wrong! The goal of poker is to make good decisions. Money is simply the way you measure how well you're meeting that objective. So if you're ready to start making world-class decisions at the poker table--and to reap the substantial rewards that those decisions will yield--all you have to do is Decide to Play Great Poker now.You'll never be vexed by "it depends" again.

The top-ranked female poker player in the world reveals an insider’s view of the World Series of Poker, a glimpse of her fascinating journey to the top, and keen analysis of winning hands From the Introduction I never set out to become a professional poker player. I was schooled at St. Paul’s School, where my father taught English; Columbia University, where I majored in psychology and English literature, and the University of Pennsylvania, where, at twenty-six, I was nearing completion of a PhD in psycholinguistics. The afternoon before I was scheduled to meet the academic committee for a job interview, I drove my Honda from Philadelphia to New York, to see my mother. She wanted to have a little pre-celebration for a future that was mine for the taking, an academic career that would ooze prominence and prosperity. Once inside the apartment, suddenly, a dam burst. A simple tin trash can stood below my mother’s desk; I leaned over and hurled into it, again and again. The diagnosis? I was afraid to grow up. That’s when I ran away. Without a word of explanation, I fled to Montana, to marry a man I had never dated. And then, when money got tight and I felt beaten down by life in a leaky shack with minimal hot water, I got into my Honda and drove fifty-one frontier miles to the Crystal Lounge, in Billings. I sat down at the poker table, among thick- fingered cowboys and boozing rednecks, slipped off my shoes, tucked my bare feet under my butt, and as the dealer tossed me an Ace-Queen, I knew I was home. This is where my life begins. Annie Duke takes readers deep into the World Series of Poker as she wins millions, becoming the only woman to ever win two major tournaments in one year.

WELCOME TO THE MIDDLE ZONESo often in Texas hold’em poker, you just don’t know where you stand. Do you have the best hand? The worst? Within the great gray area between the stone nuts and a pure bluff it’s often hard to tell. But take heart, because in this innovative new poker single, Annie Duke and John Vorhaus dive deep into the murky decision space of the middle zone, show you what it is, how to avoid it, and what to do if, alas, you step in something sticky. In The Middle Zone, you’ll learn…• How to forecast your prospects for a hand • How to sidestep pot-size mistakes• How to win pots that don’t belong to you• How to turn accidental bluffs into intentional onesThe middle zone is one of hold’em’s most common decision spaces – and one of its most commonly misplayed. But it doesn’t have to be that way. Just read and study The Middle Zone and you’ll walk away with a simple, reliable strategy for navigating this tricky space effectively on hand after hand, and turning a cloudy poker situation into a clear – and clearly profitable – one instead. Middle zone hands are the toughest hands to play, and Duke and Vorhaus offer great insight about how you should begin to think about some difficult situations. They teach you how to account for position and relative hand strength, both extremely important concepts in the modern game of poker. This book will help take your game to the next level!-Vanessa SelbstTwo-time NAPT Champion, WSOP Bracelet Holder

A complete hand-by-hand analysis of heads-up championship play against the best players in the world shows how to beat opponents at heads-up pokerYou’ll learn how two of the best heads-up tournament players think through every decision in more than 600 hands as they battle their way to the final round in the prestigious NBC Heads-Up Championship. You’ll see their cards and hear their thoughts through twelve matches as they devise masterful strategies to defeat world-class opponents. Annie Duke and Vanessa Rousso give you a powerful mix of the practice, theory, and strategies for heads-up tournaments—where you must risk chips on every hand you’re dealt—and show you what they did to beat the best players in the world. You’ll see what works and what doesn’t as amazing bluffs and poorly executed tactics are deconstructed. You’ll learn how to design a game plan for each opponent, how to adjust your plan as the match progresses, how to play against pros and amateurs alike, and how to get the best of it against superior opponents. Their detailed analysis of when to change your strategy due to fluctuating chip counts, the flow of the match, and dynamic maneuvers make this book the bible of heads-up play.

＼全球暢銷書《高勝算決策》作者最新力作／＝補足做出精準決策的失落環節＝適用於投資理財、選科系、找工作、挑對象和生活大小事……贏家成功的關鍵，不是努力不懈，而是懂得在對的時機「聰明放棄」，這也是最容易被低估、被忽視的決策能力！諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、《快思慢想》作者、《逆思維》作者、《跨能致勝》作者……★各界一致好評★★ Amazon. com商業理財類暢銷榜No. 1★ Amazon Kindle非文學類優良圖書★ 橫跨經濟學、心理學、賽局理論、神經科學、哲學、風險投資、管理科學等領域如果你有以下幾種常見的煩惱，必讀本書——「該離職，還是留在原公司？」「現在要賣出股票，還是繼續持有？」「該分手，還是繼續在一起？」「已經付出那麼多了，現在放棄會不會很可惜？」►有恆毅力是好事，但不知變通壞了事社會大眾習慣把「不放棄」、「恆毅力」跟成功、贏家劃上等號，認為「放棄」是無能、失敗、輸家的表現。然而，世界撲克冠軍、賓州大學認知心理學博士安妮．杜克，她主張，我們應該撕掉「放棄不可能贏，贏家永不放棄」的標籤。►贏家與輸家的差別──懂不懂得「放棄」安妮．杜克以世界撲克大賽為例，選手拿到

总有些时刻面临关键决策。在这个充满不确定性的时代，我们在决策时时常面临信息不足、不理性和盲从的局面。一旦决策错误，就要用更长时间来为之买单。我们需要专业的决策课。 本书作者安妮?杜克是认知心理学博士，同时也是传奇职业扑克手。获得过世界扑克系列赛大笔奖金的她明白：职业扑克手就是职业决策者。在信息不足时，扑克手需要在两分钟内做出20个决策，本质上像一场又一场的决策*实验。杜克融合心理科学和扑克高手实战经验，总结出了对赌思维。她为许多世界500强高管提供决策咨询，帮助他们放弃对确定性不切实际的追求，更好地评估事实，优选决策方案。 《对赌：信息不足时如何做出高明决策》通过许多生动的案例，介绍了一套人人都可以采用的、强大（但易于操作）的方法。它让你了解决策背后是概率选择，真正关注决策质量而不以结果论成败；让你破除心理上的自利性偏差，让你在情绪不稳的情况下及时退出止损。培养了科学的认知习惯后，加上各种思维工具的有效运用，如同伴制的求真团体和心理时间旅行法等，*终建立你强大且完整的科学决策系统。 《对赌：信息不足时如何做出高明决策》将重塑你的科学决策系统，使你成为自信镇定的人生出牌者，*终在长期博弈中，成为胜者。

加微信（soweinc) 分享最新前沿的知识好书,好友低至3-9折.书名：对赌 实践版 成功学 (美)安妮·杜克作者:出版社:中信出版社出版时间:2022-01装帧:平装开本:32开页数:344页字数:215千字所属分类:哲学心理学

Pub 2024-08 336 CITIC Press As a world champion in professional poker. Anne Duke is committed to transforming her winning experience at the poker table into thinking. methods. techniques. cases and tools to guide sm

LA OBRA QUE LEEN EN WALL STREET PARA APRENDER A TOMAR MEJORES DECISIONES DE FORMA MÁS RÁPIDATener éxito no solo depende de tomar una buena decisión. Y viceversa. Entonces, ¿cómo saber elegir bien? Annie Duke, campeona mundial de póker y experta en psicología cognitiva, comparte su experiencia para enseñarnos a gestionar la incertidumbre como los mejores apostadores. Se trata de aprender a evaluar qué decisiones tienen más probabilidades de salir bien, incluso cuando no contamos con toda la información, y hacerlo en tiempo récord. Un enfoque tan práctico como sorprendente que nos ayuda a mejorar nuestras perspectivas a largo plazo.

Please Note The individual books included in this listing will be dispatched as per the original UK ISBN and UK edition cover image shown—are included in the Thinking in Bets, Own It Crush It Do It & Own The Market 3 Books Collection Set Thinking in Bets [Hardcover]In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view.Own It, Crush It, Do ItTalk is cheap—action pays the bills. Whether you’re chasing big goals or building a life that actually excites you, this is your push to stop overthinking and start owning every move. No more waiting for a sign—it’s your time to step up, take control, and make it happen.Own The MarketThe market doesn’t wait for anyone—so why should you? Whether you’re building a brand, a business, or your personal empire, the game is own your space, make bold moves, and stay ahead. This is your playbook for outsmarting the competition and claiming what’s yours—no apologies.